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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts

Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

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Glenn F Schreiber
aka "theweatherguy"

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Sat, 14 Jan 2006
Statistical Ensemble forecast for Saturday night
Looking at the statistical ensemble for the GFS model (statistical ensemble is a set of 10 models, each with known biases; an average is taken to assess what the output would be like if we didn't know what errors existed in the operational format.)
The Ensemble forecast suggests a near 100% chance of snow, and the QPF values suggest that the operational GFS is possibly understating the amount of precipitation tonight as snow.

posted: Jan 14 2006 at 9:36 am

[/weather/jan06] permanent link

Winter Weather Update 8 AM Saturday
Last night's GFS (1 AM run of the model) still has snow, starting about 9PM and ending before daybreak Sunday. QPF values have been reduced to about 0.14 inches water. Considering ground temperatures, probably a coating up to 1.5 inches will accumulate over night.

posted: Jan 14 2006 at 9:22 am

[/weather/jan06] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's website
		Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's website, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." Glenn F Schreiber aka "theweatherguy" Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 13: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 12: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 11: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 10: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Sat, 14 Jan 2006 Statistical Ensemble forecast for Saturday night Looking at the statistical ensemble for the GFS model (statistical ensemble is a set of 10 models, each with known biases; an average is taken to assess what the output would be like if we didn't know what errors existed in the operational format.) The Ensemble forecast suggests a near 100% chance of snow, and the QPF values suggest that the operational GFS is possibly understating the amount of precipitation tonight as snow. posted: Jan 14 2006 at 9:36 am [/weather/jan06] permanent link Winter Weather Update 8 AM Saturday Last night's GFS (1 AM run of the model) still has snow, starting about 9PM and ending before daybreak Sunday. QPF values have been reduced to about 0.14 inches water. Considering ground temperatures, probably a coating up to 1.5 inches will accumulate over night. posted: Jan 14 2006 at 9:22 am [/weather/jan06] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.