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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts

Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

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"Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life."

Glenn F Schreiber
aka "theweatherguy"

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Fri, 04 Apr 2008
Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri PM Update
Today's models didn't capture the slowing front very well; they over-predicted the rain today and didn't capture the periods of clearing very well. The NAM seemed to do better than the GFS.
The frontal boundary continues to slow down. Looking at the NAM model, it keeps low clouds through early afternoon on Saturday (and no rain), but suggests breaks in the overcast in the afternoon. Then it predicts rain re-developing Saturday night. So the NAM has us dry for much of Saturday.
BUT, the GFS shows a very wet Saturday. With this sort of divergence in the models, confidence in this weekend's forecast is poorer than normal. I'd go with the NAM model and a dry forecast, but it may be very wrong.
The GFS continues with wet conditions early Sunday morning, drying out in the afternoon. Again, a very uncertain forecast.
Sat 4/5: Based on the NAM model, low clouds in the morning, some clearing in the afternoon before rain redevelops at night. High 59. Low confidence forecast.
Sun 4/6: Clouds and showers linger early, then partial clearing. High 60. Low confidence forecast for Sunday.

posted: Apr 04 2008 at 9:31 pm

[/weather/apr08] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's website
		Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's website, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." Glenn F Schreiber aka "theweatherguy" Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 13: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 12: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 11: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 10: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Fri, 04 Apr 2008 Weekend Weather Forecast- Fri PM Update Today's models didn't capture the slowing front very well; they over-predicted the rain today and didn't capture the periods of clearing very well. The NAM seemed to do better than the GFS. The frontal boundary continues to slow down. Looking at the NAM model, it keeps low clouds through early afternoon on Saturday (and no rain), but suggests breaks in the overcast in the afternoon. Then it predicts rain re-developing Saturday night. So the NAM has us dry for much of Saturday. BUT, the GFS shows a very wet Saturday. With this sort of divergence in the models, confidence in this weekend's forecast is poorer than normal. I'd go with the NAM model and a dry forecast, but it may be very wrong. The GFS continues with wet conditions early Sunday morning, drying out in the afternoon. Again, a very uncertain forecast. Sat 4/5: Based on the NAM model, low clouds in the morning, some clearing in the afternoon before rain redevelops at night. High 59. Low confidence forecast. Sun 4/6: Clouds and showers linger early, then partial clearing. High 60. Low confidence forecast for Sunday. posted: Apr 04 2008 at 9:31 pm [/weather/apr08] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.