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Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts

Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]

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Glenn F Schreiber
aka "theweatherguy"

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Mon, 08 Feb 2010
Winter Weather Update- Mon PM [3]
Latest GFS data just became available. It is remarkably similar to the NAM. At daybreak on Wednesday, there will be about 6+ inches; by the end of the storm, about 12 -15 inches.
All of the uncertainties discussed in my previous discussion still apply. Updates tonorrow.

posted: Feb 08 2010 at 11:00 pm

[/weather/feb10] permanent link

Winter Weather Update- Mon PM
A complex low pressure system, the result of secondary low development off the of coast, will evolve from Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening. Differences in placement of the upper low pressure, along with exact speed of development and position of the secondary surface low, will make exact prediction of snow amounts this time around more complicated.
There is a general consensus that anywhere from 0.90-1.65 inches of water will fall in the general area as snow, but exact location of the moisture convergence may be difficult to pin down, with several models showing that a dry slot may occur over Philadelphia during the morning of Wednesday, with much of the heavy snow falling to our west and south. Additionally, temperatures will vary during the storm, so the ratio of snow to rain will be changing during the storm.
I agree with current official forecasts that anywhere from 8-18 inches snow may fall from Tuesday evening through early Wednesday evening. That's a much larger range than I ususually predict, but I think there's more uncertainty about specifics with this storm than the recent past storms.
Tonight's models will shed more light on this forecast. The NAM model output becomes available about 9:30 PM and the GFS model output becomes available about 10:50 PM

posted: Feb 08 2010 at 7:57 pm

[/weather/feb10] permanent link

Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.

theweatherguy's website
		Philadelphia Weekend Weather and Storm Forecasts
Glenn F. Schreiber DMD and Glenn Schreiber is theweatherguy writing about Philadelphia Weather [radar] [surface map] [disclaimer]
	About this blog theweatherguy's website, "Thoughts and comments on Philadelphia Weather and Daily Life." Glenn F Schreiber aka "theweatherguy" Photos Weather Definitions Copy link for RSS feed Links These are a few of my favorite links. National Weather Service Official Forecasts Meteorology Glossary Archives Weather Archives: 13: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 12: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 11: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 10: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 09: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 08: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 07: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 06: Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec 05: Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Commentary: Miscellaneous Find	Mon, 08 Feb 2010 Winter Weather Update- Mon PM [3] Latest GFS data just became available. It is remarkably similar to the NAM. At daybreak on Wednesday, there will be about 6+ inches; by the end of the storm, about 12 -15 inches. All of the uncertainties discussed in my previous discussion still apply. Updates tonorrow. posted: Feb 08 2010 at 11:00 pm [/weather/feb10] permanent link Winter Weather Update- Mon PM A complex low pressure system, the result of secondary low development off the of coast, will evolve from Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening. Differences in placement of the upper low pressure, along with exact speed of development and position of the secondary surface low, will make exact prediction of snow amounts this time around more complicated. There is a general consensus that anywhere from 0.90-1.65 inches of water will fall in the general area as snow, but exact location of the moisture convergence may be difficult to pin down, with several models showing that a dry slot may occur over Philadelphia during the morning of Wednesday, with much of the heavy snow falling to our west and south. Additionally, temperatures will vary during the storm, so the ratio of snow to rain will be changing during the storm. I agree with current official forecasts that anywhere from 8-18 inches snow may fall from Tuesday evening through early Wednesday evening. That's a much larger range than I ususually predict, but I think there's more uncertainty about specifics with this storm than the recent past storms. Tonight's models will shed more light on this forecast. The NAM model output becomes available about 9:30 PM and the GFS model output becomes available about 10:50 PM posted: Feb 08 2010 at 7:57 pm [/weather/feb10] permanent link Disclaimer: I am not a meteorologist and provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) . While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use at your own risk! I am NOT responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts. Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans. The weatherguy.net home page has been visited times since October 2003.