The cold front has taken its time moving off the coast, although last night’s models had the sun not breaking through until “mid to late afternoon”. Current radar suggests precip is lingering.
The current weather map (NAEFS) shows the jet stream winds moving up from the south while high pressure over the Great Lakes moves in from the west.
NAEFS forecast for today. Jet Stream Winds, Surface Pressure and 540 thickness line. (Click on image for a larger view.)
This jet stream pattern will transition to a flat (“zonal”) flow by Wednesday—
NAEFS statistical mode forecast for Wednesday. The red 540 thickness line captures the flatness of the jet flow. The model suggest a fair amount of interaction between moisture (warm) from the south and and colder high pressure to the north, with possible wave formation. This could set up an active weather pattern. Some mixed precipitation possible at some point late in the week, depending upon how things play out.
Saturday
High pressure builds in from the west but will move off to the east by Saturday night.
Sunny and seasonably cold. Still breezy, winds increase during the afternoon.
High temperature 43.5º sd 2.0º ( NBM model location – Blue Bell, PA)
Sunday
As high pressure moves off, moisture returns aloft and a significant amount of mid-level cloudiness is expected.
High temperature 51.1º sd 1.9º ( NBM model location- Blue Bell, PA)
NBM Wind Meteogram for Blue Bell PA (Click on image for a larger view.)
Update Thu 02/16 @ 9:59 PM — A cold front moves through in the morning with some heavy rain. Tonight’s models are showing that clearing may be gradual and some sun may not break out until mid to late afternoon on Friday.
Tonight’s 00zNAM model rainfall totals for Friday. (Click on image for a larger view.)
It will become quite WINDY tomorrow as temperatures fall.
I’ll be posting my regular weekend forecast tomorrow.
For next week, things may become more active, especially towards the end of the week.
Crazy Warm
Update Wed 2/15 11:01 PM — At 10 PM, it was 59° outside. It’s February 15th.. What’s wrong with this picture?
For Thursday, rain moves in from the southwest between noon and 2 PM.
Warm Wednesday
Update Tue 2/14 9:50 PM — A warm front moves through tonight with a few sprinkles in some areas Wednesday morning before sunshine breaks out late morning. Temperatures will be very mild on Wednesday. The NBM has highs 63-65°!
Thursday forecast – Continuation of our “Sprinter” (Springlike – Winter)
Update Mon 02/13 @ 8:43 PM — Following a slight, brief cool-down on Tuesday, we’ll warm up on Wednesday and Thursday.
Unfortunately, some light rain will start moving in sometime Thursday early afternoon. So while temps will approach or exceed 60º, it won’t be anything like a picture-perfect day. The rain will increase on Thursday night and end sometime Friday morning.
Here’s the latest GEFS forecast for Thursday evening—
Today’s 18z GEFS forecast for Thursday at 7 PM (Click on image for a larger view.)
What about some snow?
There have been no signs of any snow here so far this month. Today’s NAEFS forecast shows the first ‘possibility’ of light snow. (0.5 -1″) When? Next Thursday, Feb 24. (LOL)
We may get snow from the tail-end of this departing storm—
NAEFS forecast for Thursday evening Feb 24th. Not much of a storm for us, but maybe some white stuff. (Click on image for a larger view.)
I’ll keep my eye on this, but snow lovers, don’t get your hopes up too much.
Previously Posted Sun 10:42 PM —
What can you say about the Eagles…
Tonight’s showers move out before daybreak.
Monday will be mostly sunny, although an increase in winds is expected in the afternoon. Some cloudiness will move in during the mid or late afternoon as a weak cold front moves through.
Tuesday will be about 5º cooler than Monday.
The rest of this week will be notable for its high temperatures, Wednesday and especially Thursday, where highs look to be near 60º or more, courtesy of a strong upper ridge over the eastern US —
ECMWF jet stream winds at 300mb height forecast for Thursday. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Another cold front moves through at the end of the week for another brief cool-down next weekend.
