WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST

Sunday Forecast Update

Posted Saturday 07/05/25 @ 5:43 PM — Sunday looks to remain sunny, but an increase in temperatures and humidity will become apparent by early afternoon. High temperatures will approach or exceed 90º and some areas from Center City to northeast into NJ may see highs in the 92º – 93º range. Dew points will approach or exceed 70º in some areas.

The approaching tropical system moisture (described in the earlier posting) and the developing thermal instability may cause some isolated/widely scattered showers/thundershowers to develop between 4 PM and 9 PM. Forecasting the exact placement and timing is never possible, but areas near Wilmington DE and in Chester County are likely areas.

The REFS (experimental) has been doing pretty well with these forecasts. Here’s what it’s showing at 8 PM—

12z REFS 1 hour rain with standard deviation. Forecast hour 8 PM. (Click on image for a larger view.)

Monday is looking humid, warm and wet due to the approaching subtropical system. Stay tuned.


Originally Posted Fri 5:24 PM —You don’t need me to tell you today was a spectacular Fourth of July, weather-wise. Low humidity, comfortable near-average temperatures, and sunny skies!

We’ll have this great weather through the balance of this weekend. The noticeable difference by Sunday will be higher temperatures and somewhat higher humidity.

Saturday Forecast

Sunny. Comfortable.

NBM high temperatures: Blue Bell, PA 86.8º ± 0.6º Philadelphia, PA 88.3 ± 1.5º
Average Uncertainty (based on standard deviation)

Sunday Forecast

Sunny. Slightly more humid. Somewhat breezy in the afternoon.

NBM high temperatures: Blue Bell, PA 90.2º ± 1.2º Philadelphia, PA 91.0º ± 1.7º
Average Uncertainty (based on standard deviation)

Beyond this Weekend

Of interest is a developing low pressure system with tropical characteristics (a warm center low) developing near Jacksonville FL. This will move up the coast Monday into Tuesday with rain, possibly heavy. The AI models are similar, but the track inland or somewhat more eastward is still to be determined.

ECMWF-AI model expected to move up the coast Monday into Tuesday. Possible heavy rain and high humidity expected. (Click on image for a larger view.)