Forecast Recap

This past weekend’s weather was cloudier and wetter than had been predicted.  Yesterday (Sunday), the clouds moved in several hours earlier than the models had predicted.  Sunday afternoon’s rain at the shore and even here was significantly wetter than had been predicted by the models that prior morning.

For today, Memorial Day, both models show cloudiness for most of the day, but with no precipitation.

11AM Update:   The current weather shows the model forecasts to be  wrong again.  Areas  of light showers have developed over our area, which were barely captured by the short range models earlier this morning.  Do I dare say that they shouldn’t last?

The cloud deck should thin as the day progresses, so skies may brighten a bit in the mid to late afternoon, but don’t expect any blue skies.

With all the cool temperatures of this past month (with a few days of exceptions), one may wonder when we’ll see summer-like conditions.  According to the NWS Climate Center, the forecast outlook is for temperatures to be well above average in this area for June and July. 

 

Unsettled Saturday, Fine Sunday, Unsettled Monday

A large low pressure circulation located in Canada will rotate areas of vorticity through our region over the Memorial Day Weekend.  The overall cyclonic flow and cold pool of air aloft will result in considerable instability cloudiness mixed with sunshine throughout the weekend.   (Friday’s sky cover will be a good example.)

Exact timing of these disturbances can be difficult to pin down for Sunday and Monday.

Saturday will start with sunshine,  but instability cloudiness will develop.  A small area of vorticity moves through late Saturday afternoon, with thicker clouds and some light showers.  High 73

Sunday currently looks to be the better day, with more sunshine and no precipitation.  High 74

After morning sunshine, another weak disturbance moves through Monday afternoon, with increased cloudiness and the possibility of light scattered showers.  High 76

 

Saturday Weather Update

Well, the GFS model from yesterday blew this forecast and it appears the NAM is going to more closely capture the weather for today.   Light showers have developed just to our west, as hinted by the NAM from yesterday afternoon (which had them moving through at noon).

So, today looks to be cloudy with light showers in the morning, likely ending by the early afternoon.  Even cooler than expected, with highs in the low to mid 60s

Storm Forecasts & Other Things "up in the air".

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