THURSDAY PM UPDATE: Today’s models continue with the increased likelihood of thunderstorms and showers Saturday afternoon.  The chance of showers and thunderstorm remain high Saturday night through all of Sunday.  Lower chances of showers on Monday.

Sometimes the best weather forecast is not to provide specifics, but rather, to indicate  when there’s too much uncertainty to make a confident forecast.

Such is the case this weekend where uncertainty about the movement of moisture from a tropical system will greatly affect our weather.

The current picture is that light showers will move in sometime Saturday afternoon and that there’s a chance of some rain or showers to persist through Sunday and possibly even through Monday.

Greatest chance of heavy rain is in Delaware and Maryland, less to our north.

There are major differences in the models but perhaps the only agreement is that this Memorial Day Weekend will not feature bright blue skies or overwhelming sunshine.

I’ll take a more definitive stance on Friday.



The rain that has been heavy Saturday morning will gradually taper during the afternoon and end this evening.   Lowering the high temp to 66.

A front moves through early Sunday morning.  Some widely scattered light showers still possible Sunday morning and cloudy conditions should give way brighter skies and sunny breaks in the afternoon.  There’s still a chance of a quick shower late in the afternoon.  Warm with a high of 82.


Let me start by pointing out that the models did poorly with today’s forecast- we were supposed to have had much more rain than we actually received today, and some areas were rain-free for much of the daytime. So we’ll see if the models get it right for the weekend…

That said, the models are insisting that we have the rain on Saturday that had been expected to move up  from the south on Friday.   All models are on-board with cloudy conditions and rain on Saturday.  An easterly wind of 10-15 mph will make it feel cooler than the expected high of 73.

The rain will end over Saturday night and Sunday should become partly sunny by late morning or early afternoon.   It will be warm with highs near 83.   There is a chance of scattered light instability showers late Sunday afternoon.


The stalled front and the train of moisture and rain riding up from the Gulf of Mexico will continue into the weekend.

Reviewing the current model output, Saturday still appears to be cloudy with rain through the day.  High near 70.  It will be breezy.

The only hope for Saturday is that the models sometimes over-extend the period of rain. Not sure we count on this model tendency here.  

The rain moves out for Sunday and some sun is possible.  High upper 70s.

Storm Forecasts & Other Things "up in the air".