WEEKEND WEATHER OUTLOOK – FRIDAY

Saturday looks to be sunny and dry with warmer temperatures and less wind.  High 63.

The remnants of a tropical low moving up from the south had been expected to move out to our east, missing us.

However, recent model runs from the GFS, CMC, ECMWF (European) and NAM show the low to hug the coast, then move eastward, with precipitation just making it into Philadelphia on Sunday early afternoon.

NAM model precipitation/ pressure/cloud  forecast for 2PM on Sunday

(The above NAM forecast has precip slightly further west than the other models mentioned.  Its QPF of about 0.40 inches water may be overdone.)

Sunday looks to be cloudy with the chance of light showers Philadelphia and westward and heavier rain in NJ.  High 60.

There’s still uncertainty with the Sunday system.  I’ll update this evening.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK CHANGES

The models did well with today’s (Wednesday) rain.   I hope they’ll continue to do as well predicting similar storms this winter.

Following the exit of the coastal low today (Wednesday) and the passage of a cold front this evening cooler air moves in.

Cool and windy weather for Thursday and Friday.  Considerable cloudiness for Thursday and it will look more like November than mid-October.

Saturday looks to be sunny and dry with warmer temperatures and less wind.

For Sunday, another coastal low, advancing from the south, had been expected to scoot out to the east on Sunday missing us.  Today’s models are suggesting this low may be close enough on Sunday to give us clouds and some showers, especially in NJ.

The long range continues to show cold weather just prior to Halloween.

WEEKEND WEATHER OUTLOOK

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Updated Outlook in green boxed text

The pattern of very dry weather may be finally ending over the next week.

Luckily, next Saturday looks to be sunny and dry.  Sunday may have clouds.

But, before we get to the upcoming weekend…

A cold front associated with a low pressure system near the Great Lakes will move through on Wednesday afternoon.  The models have been cranking out  heavy rain: 1 – 1.5 inches for the immediate Philadelphia area during Wednesday afternoon and early evening.

A dry period from Thursday through Sunday follows with moderating temperatures.

Wednesday Update: A coastal low, previously expected to scoot out to our east, may bring clouds and some rain (in NJ) on Sunday, according to the latest GFS model.

More rain early next week.

In the extended range GFS forecast, very cold weather (for October) may arrive a few days before Halloween.

WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST

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The weather forecast for the weekend has improved somewhat since I posted the “outlook” yesterday. Specifically, Sunday looks to be dry for most of the day.

A blocked pattern that has kept a deep ocean low pressure system to our east is now breaking down somewhat.

The ocean low will progress eastward enough to allow sunshine on Saturday before some clouds move in again later in the afternoon.  High 68-70.

It looks like clouds move in 2-4 PM on Saturday.

An upper air disturbance rotating around a system in the Midwest will spawn weak low pressure that will move into our area, now later on Sunday.  The path of the showers is now further east.

Sunday will have a mix  of sun and clouds in the morning and early afternoon.  Considerable cloudiness is expected during the mid afternoon. High 65.

High level cloudiness (cirrostratus) expected with mid and lower level clouds in the afternoon.

The showers previously forecast in yesterday’s outlook is now forecast to occur late in the day or evening and will be very light and widely scattered.  Heavier showers will develop further east and south of Philadelphia during Sunday evening.

Storm Forecasts & Other Things "up in the air".