Forecast Review

POST “STORM” REVIEW

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Snow will be ending from west to east shortly.

Well, I’m glad I had emphasized last night that all the major model’s built-in snow algorithms had predicted only 0.35 to 0.50 inches of snow and they didn’t support my old technique and the 1.5 to 2.0 inches which I had thought possible.

Indeed, this morning,  the NAM QPF amounts look to be over-done, based on radar. (Perhaps this is why the NCEP has recently decided to stop further development efforts of the NAM.)

Radar 6:37 AM. (Courtesy of weatherTAP.com- https://weatherTAP.com )

Looking back several days, the ‘new’ GFS probably did the best in advance, the Canadian not so good.  I had not mentioned the new NBM (National Blend of Models)  in my posts, but looking back, it also did well with the snow forecast in advance.

Winter Weather

WEDNESDAY WEATHER UPDATE

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Update Tues 9:45PM: The latest NAM data suggests that a wave develops along the front, increasing the precipitation and delaying the end of the snow.

Current QPF  values have increased to 0.35 inches water equivalent during a time when the precipitation type will be snow. Using my own method and accounting for melting and warmer ground temps, it seems that about 2 inches of snow are possible.  Snow flurries and showers may linger until 10-11AM.

10 :15 PM Update: The NAM built-in snow algorithms show less than 1 inch of snow. The latest WRF models are closer to the NAM, so my 2 inch total isn’t supported by the built in algorithms. We’ll see what happens.

10:45 PM Update:  Latest GFS doesn’t show the enhanced precipitation nor does it delay the snow ending. It maintains a snow total of about 1/2 inch.  

I’ve had a chance to review the afternoon model runs.  Both the GFS and the NAM still predict just a coating (0.30 and 0.50) of snow falling after midnight and ending about 7-9 AM, based on their built-in snow algorithms.

As mentioned in my previous post, using my old, time-tested (but not always accurate) NAM FOUS data technique, I’m coming up with 1.5 to 2 inches of snow.

I’ve never been a big fan of the built-in snow depth algorithms.

Interestingly, this afternoon’s Canadian High Resolution Model (HRDPS) has been consistently predicting ~1.6 inches of snow.

The latest RAP (Rapid Refresh) just available shows 1 inch of snow and ends with light flurries about 9 AM.

So it will be interesting to see how things turn out.    I’ll be looking at the NAM data which comes out about 9:15 and the NAM FOUS data which becomes available about 9:35 PM tonight.   Check back later for an update.

Winter Weather

WEDNESDAY SNOW FORECAST UPDATE

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As posted last night, the GFS, NAM models were leaning towards 0.40 to 0.8 inch of snow accumulation, ending between 7 and 8 AM Wednesday morning.  It’s not unusual for these post-frontal passage snow events to trend lower on the snow forecasts, as cold air often scours out the moisture available for snow.  The models are showing less wave development on the front and faster influx of cold air.

This morning’s high resolution NAM NEST has just a  coating of snow. (0.27 to 0.45 inches of snow, basically nothing to a coating). The NAM has just a coating or snow showers, based on built-in snow algorithms.

If I use my time-tested, old-fashioned NAM FOUS data technique, I’m still at the 1 inch accumulation.

BTW, over the past year or so, I have developed software and scripts that automatically download real-time raw model data directly from the NCEP and the CMC.  (You may have noticed the new model graphics I post here.)

I think I may be running into a situation where my forecasts are distracted by “too much information”.

The most recent HRRR from 7 AM today shows nothing accumulating, with the precip remaining a wet mix of rain and snow!

So the trend is for a minimal snow accumulation.   Stay tuned.

Winter Weather

WEATHER UPDATE FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING

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Update Mon 10:15 pm: Tonight’s NAM, NAM Nest and the two WRF models have become available. I’m staying with the 1 maybe 2 inch snow totals, even though the built in snow algorithms are showing about 0.5 inches of wet snow.  Snow ends 8-9 Am Wednesday. We’ll have a better handle tomorrow.

Update Mon 10:50 pm:  Tonight’s GFS has also gone into the 0.5 inch snow accumulation range. So the trend is for less snow, less than an inch.

The models are in fairly good agreement that rain will change to snow sometime after midnight Tuesday and light wet snow will be falling until sometime between 7 and 9 AM Wednesday morning.

The NAM built-in snow algorithms have only a half inch of snow accumulating, although if I use my old NAM FOUS data technique, it’s probably about 1.5 inches.

The GFS, Canadian High Resolution and the European are in the 1.3-2.0 inch range of accumulation using their built-in algorithms.

We know that these sort of post frontal passage scenarios often change, usually in the direction of less snow.

GFS Forecast Simulated Radar and Critical Snow Temperatures for 3:30 AM Wednesday. Click for larger image.

Tonight’s model runs will fall into the range of the 36-48 hour short range higher resolution models, and I’ll do a quick update later.

After the snow stops, it will become sunny by Wednesday afternoon, but fairly cold.  Treated roadways will be clear by afternoon.

Storm Forecasts & Other Things "up in the air".