An amplification in the jet stream will drop a cold front through our area late on Saturday.
Saturday starts with bright skies and possibly some sun very early, but clouds quickly move in by mid morning. By noon, it will be cloudy. Both the NAM and GFS currently hold off the rain until 2-4PM (although some light spits possible before then.) High temperatures about 54. Moderate rain by evening and through the night.
Some showers still possible very early Sunday morning, then skies attempt to clear. However, cold air aloft with the upper cyclonic flow will result in considerable broken stratocumulus cloudiness for much of Sunday. It will be very windy and gusty on Sunday. High 55 before the cold air moves in at the surface Sunday night.
(For Thanksgiving, the outlook is for below average temperatures – highs in the upper 40s. Looks mostly dry at this time, however, the statistical models are hinting at some light showers.)
I hope to be posting my Winter Outlook by the first week in December.
The current dip,in the jet stream has given us a taste of arctic air in early November.
Saturday will have sunny skies with continued cold temperatures. High will be 40.
Winds shift Sunday morning with some moisture giving us some cloudiness early, then sunny skies with highs near 49.
As has been the case over the past few weeks, my forecast for sky cover (cloudiness) hasn’t been too spot-on. Yesterday was a good example, where the GFS had cloudiness for much of the afternoon, but we had beautiful sunshine. (I use humidity fields at certain levels to predict cloudiness; something hasn’t been working lately.)
I’ll take another stab at it today. Low level cloudiness (stratocumulus and nimbostratus) lifts by afternoon, but mid-level cloudiness (altocumulus and altostratus) will be with us for the rest of the day. As far as sensible weather, it should just be cloudy. The GFS also shows an ongoing chance of light drizzle through late afternoon. High temp about 63.
The warm front moves through this evening, and winds shift to the southwest.
A weak cold front moved through Friday afternoon and a northerly flow of more seasonable (cooler) air moves in Friday evening under weak high pressure.
Saturday starts sunny and and seasonably cool, however, mid-level clouds move in during the early to mid afternoon as the high drifts off and the frontal boundary slowly moves back as a warm front. High 62.
There will be the chance of light showers Saturday night with the approaching warm front and the showers may last into Sunday morning.
Sunday will be cloudy for much of the day, with the chance of light showers or sprinkles, especially in the morning and possibly early afternoon. High will be 67.
Depending upon the movement of the warm front, we may have some breaks in the overcast late afternoon, however, the warm front is not expected to move past us until Sunday evening, so that’s an optimistic read right now.
Monday will be very warm with temperatures back into the 70s before another cold front moves through with showers later Monday afternoon.