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NAEFS = North American Ensemble Forecast System, a collaborative effort based on two major global ensemble models -the US (NOAA), and Canadian models combined with data measurements from the Mexican Meteorological Organization.

The NAEFS is an “ensemble” model, consisting of 40 derived model variations (called perturbations) from the Canadian MSC (Global Environmental Multiscale Model) and the US GEFS (Global Ensemble Forecast System).

NAEFS forecasts extend in 3 hour increments out to 384 hours. Precipitation forecasts are in 6 hour increments.

The NAEFS model is run four times a day, every 6 hours.

NAEFS forecast maps used on the are the statistical “mode” version (instead of the “mean” or “average” versions ) of the bias-corrected GEFS and Canadian Multiscale Global models.

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