Category Archives: Philadelphia Area Weather Forecasts

Philadelphia Area Weather Forecasts

WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST

Leave a comment

#Philadelphia #weather #PAwx

This looked to be a weekend where the forecast required no meteorologist; anyone could make a slam-dunk forecast for sunny skies both days with just a barometer and a wind vane.

However, things are looking a bit more interesting for later in the day Sunday, especially at the Jersey Shore.

First, high pressure builds in for Saturday with sunny skies—

NAEFS model statistical “mode” version with overlayed GEFS model “bias-corrected” precipitation forecast for Saturday. (Click on image for a larger view.)

For Sunday, there’s now some uncertainty regarding the cloud cover, especially east towards the Jersey shore on Sunday afternoon due to the formation of a closed low in the mid and upper atmosphere—

NAEFS upper 500 mb mid-level closed low Sunday 2 PM. This may cause cloudiness east into NJ and at the Jersey Shore. (Click on image for a larger view.)

The position of this closed upper low is also uncertain, with the latest ECMWF model having it closer to the coast and with a track that retrogrades it westward going into Monday.

So not a slam dunk forecast. Still likely sunny and quite nice in Philadelphia.

Saturday

Sunny and quite nice. Warmer.

NBM high temperatures: Blue Bell, PA 87º Philadelphia, PA 88º
uncertainty (based on standard deviation): very low ± 0.9º

Sunday

Mostly sunny in the morning, some increasing cloudiness in the afternoon, especially east towards the Jersey Shore. Slightly more humid with dew points near 60º

NBM high temperatures: Blue Bell, PA 89º Philadelphia, PA 90º
uncertainty (based on standard deviation): very low ± 0.9º

Philadelphia Area Weather Forecasts

WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST

#Philadelphia #weather #PAwx

Sun 4:54 PM —Forecast Review —Isolated thunderstorms formed as early as 1:30 PM and and have continued to re-form in pretty much the same areas this afternoon . The HREF forecast just below from this morning did pretty good. Most areas saw sunny skies.

Here’s the radar from 4:30 PM—

Radar composite 4:30 PM (Click on image for a larger view.)

Show More

Saturday

Mostly sunny in the morning, then periods of clouds and sunshine through high clouds in the afternoon. Showers expected in Lehigh and Berks counties will likely stay to our north, although some models show a chance of a very isolated shower in the Philadelphia area.

NBM high temperatures: Blue Bell, PA 86º Philadelphia, PA 86º
uncertainty (based on standard deviation): average ± 1.7º

Sunday

Mostly sunny and warmer. More humid. There’s still a chance of an isolated thunderstorm in the afternoon.

NBM high temperatures: Blue Bell, PA 89º Philadelphia, PA 90º
uncertainty (based on standard deviation): ± 1.5º