Tag Archives: drought


Wednesday night’s rain

Update Thu 08/11 @ 9:24 AM — Areas, especially in NJ, had some decent amounts of rain Wednesday night—

MRMS accumulated rain Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Many areas in NJ had over one inch. (Click on image for a larger view.)

Compare the above actual rain amounts above to the forecast of the experimental LAMDAX model shown here. Not perfect, but not bad!! Better placement than the NAM-NEST.

The experimental LAMDAX isn’t available every day, and when available, only web type low resolution graphics are released; no raw data is available outside of NOAA.

Rain Wednesday night into Thursday morning

Updated Wed 8/10 10:33 PM — Tonight’s models are showing considerably more rain tonight than previously forecast, in line with the experimental LAMDAX model. Many areas, but not all, may receive 0.4 to 0.8 inches. Every model shows a bullseye of localized heavy rain, but the location varies by model. Here’s the latest NAM-NEST, which is most extreme with its bullseye —

NAM-NEST. The bullseye of heavy rain is 4 inches, probably a modeling error.

Updated Wed 8/10 9:08 PM — Updated with the latest LAMDAX precip forecast which just became available below.

Updated Wed 8/10 5:54 PM —Last night, while a very few areas received a substantial rainfall, most areas last night only received a paltry amount. Even the area around Citizens Bank Park only received about 0.30″ yet it caused two rain delays.

Rainfall totals for last night (Tuesday evening/night), according to the MRMS—

MRMS total 24 hour rainfall (Tuesday evening/ night) (Click on image for a larger view.)

As for this evening (Wed), there’s lack of model agreement about where a low pressure system will develop along the stalled frontal boundary that moved through yesterday. This translates into a wide range or forecasts, most with rain south of the immediate PHL area.

The consensus forecast based on the NBM

NBM total rainfall forecast Wednesday night into early Thursday morning. Most of the rain falls from Philadelphia and southward. (Click on image for a larger view.)

We already know this forecast will be off….the same models forecast rain already beginning in some areas right now, but nothing to be seen on radar and I see blue skies outside my window.

Most of the rain will be gone by 8 AM, but a few areas may have some lingering showers, all gone by 10-11 AM, except in eastern NJ. Not a drought-buster.

Just for the heck of it, here’s the latest experimental LAMDAX high resolution model forecast, showing a very different location of the heaviest precipitation . (The LAMDX looks like it’s being developed and groomed for the next generation of models, likely to be ready for operational release in 2024. It’s still experimental and not finalized.) —

Today’s experimental 12z LAMDAX showing much different location of heaviest precip axis. The LAMDX has limited availability with only pre-made graphics, no raw data available. Click on image for larger view.

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Tonight’s showers not a drought-buster

Update Fri 07/29 @ 7:44 AM — Last night, our area received varying amounts of much-needed rain. Here’s the amounts we received Thursday evening according to the MRMS—

MRMS accumulated 12 hour precipitation (Click on image for a larger view.)

For this evening (Fri), the models are less enthusiastic about additional rain. The HRRR has much of the area with just spotty amounts, many areas with no rain. The HREF forecasts some rain, but scattered with light amounts. Not a drought-buster this evening.

The HREF has any showers/thunderstorms beginning this evening around 5-6 PM (a few isolated showers before then) and continuing through 11 PM or so.

HREF shows light, scattered showers—

HREF 1 hour precipitation at 8 PM this evening. Exact placement should not be taken literally with weather models. This is a 1 hour snapshot. Additional rain through 11 PM. (Click on image for a larger view.)

My Weekend Weather Forecast will be posted this evening.

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