With the change to Eastern Daylight Saving Time, the TV weather forecasts you will see on the 10 and 11 PM news won’t/can’t be based on the latest models. Why? Read my post from March 2018.
I tried to further explain this snag in another post last year.
Over the past year and a half, I’ve been directly downloading weather model “grib” (gridded binaries) data from NOAA for these forecasts instead of relying on the adequate, but limited data freely available from university sites on the Internet.
Over the past day I’ve been redoing my scripts/programs to have them run properly starting at 2 AM Saturday night.
To give you an idea of how late some of these weather models become available in Eastern Daylight Saving Time, here’s a few of the changes I need to make:
NAM model 9:38 PM EST —> 10:38 PM EDT
GFS model 10:38 PM EST —> 11:38 PM EDT (first 24 hour forecast data)
HIRESW Models 10:10 PM EST —> 11:10 EDT
HIREF ENSEMBLE: 11:19 EST. —> 12: 19 AM EDT
CMC GDPS 11: 45 PM EST —> 12: 45 AM EDT
ICON Model 11:21 PM EST —> 12: 21 AM EDT
To those times, add 5-10 minutes to download the data, time to review the data and you’re well into the wee hours of the morning.
Even the hourly HRRR, RAP and NBM models require several hours to incorporate the changes in the upper air measurements (also done an hour later.)
So when you hear “check back at 11” for the weather on the TV during Eastern Daylight Saving time, you’re not going to get an updated forecast on new data. It’s true for the next day forecast and even more so for the five day forecasts.