Tag Archives: Daylight Saving Time

WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST


Daylight Saving Time and Weather Forecasts

Of course, Sunday morning is the beginning of Daylight Saving Time.  I love the extra daylight at the end of the day, but for  “weather nerds”, Daylight Saving Time means the models come out an hour later.  For those of us on Eastern Time, the evening models become available inconveniently late for the next day’s forecasts!

I’ve written extensively about this in past years—

Little Known Facts about Daylight Saving Time and TV Weather Forecasts

Daylight Saving Time and Weather Models

“Check Back at 11” — TV Weather and Daylight Saving Time

Update Sat @ 9:53 PM

Sunday

A cold sunny morning, with possibly a period of cloudiness mid morning, will give way to an upper air disturbance bringing considerable cloudiness mid afternoon Sunday. There’s a chance of a quick snow flurry late afternoon or evening.
It will remain unseasonably cold but less windy. High temperature 35º ± 1.7º

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WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST

As mentioned earlier this week, a coastal system will form in the western Atlantic but the upper air flow will move it east of our area over the weekend.

Friday’s GFS model (12z) forecast for Sunday at 2 PM. (Click on image for a larger view.)

In a forecast change, today’s GFS has the low pressure system lingerirng off of the North Carolina coast. It still should not affect us. Every model has the storm eventually moving east of us.

For the Philadelphia area, high pressure extending down along the east coast will both block the northern movement of the coastal low and provide continued somewhat colder than seasonal average temperatures for the weekend. Average seasonal high temperatures are in the 57-58º range.

Saturday

Update Sat 8:35 AM — The model trend is for even less cirrus cloudiness today.

The coastal low will throw some upper level moisture towards us, resulting in sunshine through cirrus type clouds. High temp 53.7º sd 0.8º NBM model Blue Bell. (Higher than average confidence)

Update Sat 8:35 AM — The model trend is for even less cirrus cloudiness on Sunday.

The models have some mid-level clouds early Sunday morning, then sunshine through high cirrus clouds. High temp 54.9º sd 2.3º NBM model Blue Bell.

And, of course, it’s the end of Daylight Saving Time on Sunday. The only good thing I can think of about the change back to Standard Time is that the new weather models, particularly the GFS, are available before bedtime. (On Sunday, about 10:45 PM EST instead of 11:45 PM DST for the first 24 hours forecast). For new visitors to this site, here’s some background about Daylight Saving Time and Weather Model Availability with Eastern time.

WEEKEND WEATHER PREVIEW & DAYLIGHT SAVING TIME

A cold front will move through around daybreak Friday. Light rain is expected with the frontal passage (less than 0.20 inches).

Skies are expected to clear after the frontal passage and should remain sunny and cooler Friday.  A secondary cold front moves through early Saturday. 

The weekend should be mostly sunny, windy and cooler although some cloudiness is possible during part of the day Sunday as a weak upper air disturbance moves through.  High 48-50º Saturday and 53-56º Sunday.

The fairly dry weather pattern is expected to continue.

Of course, Sunday morning is the beginning of Daylight Saving Time.  I love the extra daylight at the end of the day, but for “weather people”, Daylight Saving Time means the models come out an hour later. (Weather models are run at UTC – Coordinated Universal Time).   For “weather people” on  Eastern Daylight Time, the models really come out a little too late!  I’ve written extensively about this in past years—

Little Known Facts about Daylight Saving Time and TV Weather Forecasts

Daylight Saving Time and Weather Models

“Check Back at 11” TV weather and Daylight Saving Time

The new GFS version 16 launches on March 17th. Due to the increased complexity of the new model, (there are new parameters and it’s computed at many additional levels -layers of the atmosphere), the GFS v16  will take an additional 8 minutes to compute its forecasts.  Several models that depend upon the GFS for their “initial conditions” will also run later.   

That means the GFS model’s next day forecast (for the next 24 hours) won’t be available until 11:45-11:50 PM EDT, way past the 11 o’clock TV news and past bedtime for most of us!