So what happened to the storms and flash flooding expected for today?
Clearly, the models didn’t do a very good job here. On Sunday, the models overwhelming predicted a severe weather event. They continued to do this on Monday, but by Monday evening there was a lack of agreement, with some models showing the insignificant showers we ended up with.
By this morning, the severe weather parameters had become very unimpressive and I posted that change this morning. Still, the Rapid Refresh model (RAP) available at 9:35 AM showed a line of storms about 4 PM.
While at work, the rest of this morning’s models became available between 10:15 and 12:40. The NAM NEST, WRF-AWF, WRF-NMMB, RAP, HRRR and HRDPS are the models I look at for thunderstorms. (Hey, it’s almost a full-time job, but it’s still a hobby.)
By this morning’s model run, the models had really backed off considerably with even the rain, shunting anything developing to our south. Too late to make an updated web announcement, while at work.
Interestingly, they were still talking about severe thunderstorms on the radio while driving home at 6:30 PM.
It’s always a tough call to cancel the call for severe weather when even the slight possibility could endanger people if it occurs.
Anyhow, the “elusive” search for the model that’s always correct is elusive for a reason.
Looking back, even the GFS, a large-scale model, did better yesterday than some of the high resolution models. And if I had to hang my hat on a model yesterday, the Canadian HRDPS probably called it the best at the earliest time. But it’s not always right…