The latest NAM data has become available. According to the NAM, the snow starts between 9 and 11 AM. Total QPF falling as snow varies by location, but in and around the city, about 0.30 inches water or about 3 inches of snow before mixing with sleet and freezing rain.
North and west of the city, QPF values falling as snow increase to about 0. 40 inches water, with an additional delay in the changeover. About 4-5 inches possible in areas north and west of the city.
Because it’s already the third week of February, the sun angle is high; solar insolation through clouds may reduce accumulation on dark pavement and roadways.
The changeover to sleet is expected between 4:30 and 6 PM. An hour or two of sleet and freezing rain before changing to rain.
Most of the heavy precipitation will fall as rain, leaving a soggy mess by morning. Temperatures are expected to stay above freezing towards morning, so additional freezing of fallen precip is not expected with this storm.
These sort of warm air over-running cold air scenarios with cold air damming are tough to predict accurately. Let’s see how it unfolds.