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Sunday Forecast Update – Tuesday Storm Overview
Posted Sunday 11/30/25 @ 9:50 AM — There aren’t any significant changes to today’s forecast from what I posted Friday evening. Light rain moves in from the west around 11 AM and moves out to the east by about 2-3 PM. It remains cloudy, but a few bright spots through clouds are possible in the later afternoon. Total rainfall light, between 0.04″ and 0.10″ today.
Regular visitors here know I’ve been talking about a winter-like coastal storm that is expected to move in Tuesday morning. The ECMWF-AI model has some light precipitation, possibly some snow flakes or sleet before daybreak which changes to all rain in the city and immediate surrounding counties. Upper Bucks, Montco and Chester counties may see perhaps a 1/2″ of snow accumulation before the changeover between 9 AM and 11 AM. The latest RRFS (still experimental) has it somewhat warmer with accumulations limited to the Allentown, north and west.
At times, the models have suggested a changeover back to snow before ending Tuesday evening, but that possibility seems to have faded at this time.
Here’s the current RRFS snowfall forecast at 11 AM Tuesday
I’ll update later this afternoon with a more complete forecast based on the latest models. Stay tuned.
Interesting Weather through Tuesday
Originally Posted Fri 7:10 PM — An interesting weather pattern is expected to begin this weekend with a deepening upper trough and spawning of low pressure.
Saturday Forecast
Cold high pressure will be in control for Saturday. Most of the day to be sunny and still unseasonably cold. Windy in the morning, but winds subside during the afternoon into the evening. Some cloudiness moves in before sunset ahead of the next system.
NBM high temperatures: Blue Bell, PA 42º Philadelphia, PA 43º
Very low uncertainty (based on standard deviation): ± 0.6º
Sunday Forecast
Clouds move in Saturday night and Sunday begins cloudy from a system in the Great Lakes
Increasing likelihood of light rain from west to east as early as 11 AM. Light rain through the afternoon, ending about 6 PM in the city. Total rainfall 0.15″- 0.45″
NBM high temperatures: Blue Bell, PA 46º Philadelphia, PA 48º
Above average uncertainty (based on standard deviation): ± 2.4º
Stormy on Tuesday
The cold front that move through brings in colder air for Monday and a dip in the jet stream spawns low pressure the moves up towards us on Tuesday.
Note the red, yellow, and magenta “thickness” lines running through the Philadelphia area. This suggests that the lower and mid levels of the atmosphere are cold enough for frozen precipitation. Areas far northwest of the city will likely see some snow accumulation. Areas closer to the city may see some snow or sleet change to rain. Little to no accumulation expected in the city at this time.
This is an interesting winter-like storm for this time of the year. I’ll be following it over the coming days. Check back for updates.