Folks, I’m on an extended escape in the mostly sunny climes along the Mediterranean sea. My forecasts will return the week of May 6th.
Tuesday Wednesday Outlook
Posted Monday 04/08/24 @ 7:58 PM — It looks like Tuesday will be the day for high cirrus cloudiness (maybe milky sky at times.) It will be quite mild with highs 76-78º ) (The Canadian has us reaching 80º, possible but not likely.)
An approaching warm front will bring rain as early as 1 AM Wednesday morning. As the front approaches any rainfall will be light and very widely scattered and there likely will be some sunny breaks. Still somewhat mild (60s) but the easterly or southeasterly flow will put a lid on temps.
NAEFS model statistical “mode” version with overlayed GEFS model “bias-corrected” precipitation forecast for Thursday (Click on image for a larger view.)
Very rainy and stormy Thursday. A secondary low will form towards the coast. A possible slow mover. Heavy rain possible! Stay tuned.
Eclipse Cloud Cover Update
Mon 6:04 PM —Forecast Review — Cloud cover in some places was as expected and was quite dynamic, changing throughout the peak eclipse point of 90% totality at 3:23 PM. Here’s the 3:45 RTMA cloud cover for time 3:30 PM— 3:45 PM RTMA which shows the cloud coverage at 3:30 PM today. (Click on image for a larger view.)
One thing to note. The areas of cloud cover here during the eclipse was not “milky sky” cloud cover, as described by several TV/radio broadcasts this morning and last night. ‘Milky sky’ refers to translucent cirrostratus clouds and sometimes high level altostratus. (Back when I learned about weather, it was referred to as ‘frosted glass skies’.)
Today’s cloud cover was altocumulus and relatively thick altostratus cloud cover, mostly mid-level clouds that are fairly opaque.
During the eclipse, I was having a late lunch outside Phoenixville. Here’s the sky at 3:20 PM—
Here’s an iPhone capture at 2:52 PM, a half hour before maximum—
Posted Monday 04/08/24 @ 9:56 AM — After looking over a whole bunch of last night’s models, it still appears that some, but not all, areas around Philadelphia will have considerable cloudiness in the 3 PM time frame.
Here’s a few that are representative—
Canadian RGEM at 3 PM is the most optimistic with the least cloud cover over much of the area.
Here’s the Canadian High Resolution.
Canadian HRDPS shows areas of heavy cloudiness at 3 PM. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Least favorable is this morning’s HRRR, just available. It has a large swath of cloudiness in some parts of the area. (The HRRR tends to over-forecast cloud cover at times. Howver, its forecast is not that different than the German ICON which is pretty good with cloud cover. )
This morning’s HRRR (12z) forecast for 3 PM. Not very good, but the HRRR tends to over-forecast cloudiness in many situations. (Click on image for a larger view.)
I guess we’ll see. (quite literally)
Solar Eclipse Weather- Cloud Forecast Roundup
Originallly Posted Sun 7:54 PM —There’s an incredible level of interest in the solar eclipse on Monday. For the Philadelphia area, the maximum eclipse will occur about 3:23 PM to 3:24 PM. So what will the cloud cover be at that time?
Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like we’ll have a cloud-free sky. At the same time, I think there may be enough clear sky visibility in many areas to enjoy the event, but not all areas.
Cloud cover forecasts are one of those things that weather models really struggle with, especially when forecasting an approaching, poorly defined weather system. Such is the case tomorrow with a mid-level disturbance expected to move through during that same time period.
Most of the models are forecasting between 50% and 95% cloud cover, specifically mid-level clouds. The HRRR is closer to 97% but it tends to over-forecast cloud cover. With the ensemble models, the “spread” is about ± 35% in many areas, indicating moderate uncertainty.
Here are a few of the latest models cloud cover forecast for Monday at 3:30 PM—
HRRR (possibly overdone) —
04-07-24 18z HRRR. The maroon is mid-level and the blue is low-level clouds. The HRRR tends to over-forecast cloudiness and it’s forecast has clouds of 97% in the dark maroon areas. (Click on image for a larger view.)
04-07-24 GFS forecast has some areas with 65% and some low clouds. Far northern Bucks and Montgomery counties are near 90% with low clouds. (Click on image for a larger view.)
NBM— The NBM doesn’t break things down into low medium clouds. It does total cloud cover—
04-07-24 18z NBM cloud forecast. Pink/purple lines indicate areas of higher than average uncertainty. It’s overall cloud cover is about 45-50%. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Canadian RGEM. Like the NBM, it doesn’t break things down into low medium or high clouds. It’s cloud forecasts are pretty good.
04-07-24 18z RGEM cloud forecast at 3:30PM. It has some considerable areas of cloudiness. I think this may be the best bet for accuracy tomorrow. 04-07-24 18z Experimental RRFS shows the upper air disturbance already moved through to our east. The model may not be ready for prime time. (Click on image for a larger view.)
So, what’s interesting and clear from these models— A disturbance is moving through our area just at the height of the eclipse. How much cloud cover at any one point is anyone’s guess. My preference is on the RGEM, NAM-NEST and GFS. Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like cloudless, blue sky conditions.
As for the rest of the week, another soaker may be setting up for Wednesday into Thursday—
NAEF forecast for Wednesday at 8 AM. Approaching warm front, with a large low pressure system to move up west of us on Thursday. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Posted Thursday 04/04/24 @ 5:35 PM — Showers developed in Delaware and Chester counties early Thursday afternoon and moved northeastward. The clouds and showers are the result of instability from cold air aloft and a cyclonic flow around the deep low pressure system that affected our weather earlier this week.
NAEFS forecast for Friday at 11 AM. Deep low pressure over Maine will continue to rotate cold, unstable air over us. (Click on image for a larger view.)
For Friday, the cold cyclonic flow will continue with sunshine in the morning and some sun with instability cloudiness in the afternoon. Showers may wait until evening to move in from the northwest. High upper 40s to about 50º
For Saturday, the effects of the deep low will slowly diminish. A mix of sun and clouds but a light sprinkle can’t be ruled out Saturday in areas far northwest of the city. Gradually moderating temperatures.
For Sunday, more sun than clouds, but some instability cloudiness still possible.
Wednesday night through Thursday
Posted Wednesday 04/03/24 @ 5:30 PM — We’ve had a lot of rain and we’re not quite done with it. Rainfall over the past 72 hours has been in the 2-4 + inch range —
MRMS combined rain gauge & radar-based measurement of actual rainfall received. Color shading is in inches. Line contour numbers are in mm (25.4 mm= 1 inch) (Click on image for a larger view.)
More showers tonight with the actual cold front moving through around midnight.
We may actually see some a bit of sun (with plenty of clouds) Thursday morning, but an upper air low will move directly over us resulting in thicker clouds and scattered showers developing early to mid afternoon—
HREF forecast 1 hour rainfall at 4 PM Thursday. (Click on image for a larger view.)
A similar scenario for Friday.
Wednesday Looking less Wild
Posted Wednesday 04/03/24 @ 9:02 AM — Last night’s models have backed off on the northern extent of the approaching warm front. That means that thermodynamic energy/instabliity (CAPE) will be significantly less than had been forecast, making thunderstorms and tornadoes less likely.
Vertical Shear and Helicity values remain highly elevated from 11 AM through the early afternoon. Since CAPE values are expected to be low, it’s unclear how that energy will come together into sensible weather. I would expect strong wind gusts during that period, along with heavy rainfall.
04-03-24 RAP model with current MRMS radar overlay at 9 AM. Very high upward vertical motion (yellow contours “Omega”) with blue contours (moisture convergence) will combine to produce heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Wild Weather Wednesday
Update Tue 4/02 9:58 PM — Tonight’s models are increasingly forecasting the possibility of some severe weather Wednesday afternoon (3-4 PM) into the evening. This is especially true of areas from Philadelphia southward. Extremely high shear and helicity values coupled with moderate CAPE may allow some severe thunderstorms to form. High winds expected. Even tornadic activity is possible. Stay tuned.
Wednesday-Thursday Outlook
Posted Tuesday 04/02/24 @ 4:40 PM — I’ve been “doing the weather” for more years than I want to admit, but I don’t recall as many days of rain where 1-3″ accumulation has become the norm.
I’ve been able to access the MRMS rain accumulation data for the past two days, through 3 PM. (I’m not sure how accurate it is since the radar for Philadelphia, located in Fort Dix NJ, has been down for repairs.) —
MRMS combined rain gauge & radar-based measurement of actual rainfall received on Monday and today, Tuesday through 3 PM. Color shading is in inches. Line contour numbers are in mm (25.4 mm= 1 inch) (Click on image for a larger view.)
Additional rainfall, probably the heaviest of this week, will be on Wednesday as a warm front moves across. Perhaps another 1.5- 2″!
We had some low level thunderstorm activity Tuesday afternoon and the possibility exists for additional thunderstorm activity on Wednesdayand especially Wednesday evening when thunderstorms may be moderate to strong as the cold front moves through.
It would not surprise me if a severe thunderstorm watch is issued for the period 5 PM through 10 PM Wednesday.
The latest water vapor image shows the current weather well—
Current satellite water vapor image with superimposed RAP model 500-1000 mb thickness lines (yellow), Mean Sea Level Pressure isobars (black contours) potential vorticity (fine violet contours) with superimposed MRMS RADAR. I’ve drawn in the warm front and cold front and indicated the influx of cold air behind the cold front (blue arrow) and the moist flow ahead (orange arrow) (Click on image for a larger view.)
Look for updates Wednesday morning if severe weather looks more likely.
Monday into Tuesday
Posted Monday 04/01/24 @ 7:50 PM — The forecast is unchanged. The latest GFS (which tends to slightly under-forecast rainfall) has 3 plus inches of rain by late Thursday.
Tuesday– An additional 0.8 -1″ of rain expected, especially north of the city.
Wednesday— Even heavier rainfall on Wednesday into Thursday.
By Friday—
04-01-24 18z GFS accumulated additional rain forecast from Monday night through 2 AM Friday. (Does not include Monday’s rainfall) (Click on image for a larger view.)
I’d like to post today’s rainfall, but the server I connect to is down.
Posted Monday 04/01/24 @ 9:45 AM — Last night’s models continued with a little-changed forecast. Several low pressure systems will move through our area from today (Monday) through Thursday, culminating in a closed low over Ohio and a developing Nor’easter for New England off of our coast by Thursday morning—
04-01-24 00zECMWF total accumulated rain forecast from Monday through 5 AM Thursday morning. (3.2″ in our area) The mid-level low (upper low) in L light blue will still be in Ohio on Thursday. As it tracks over our area Friday, we’ll still run the chance of showers. (Click on image for a larger view.)
The trend has been for slightly higher rainfall totals in our area (now over 3″ expected by Thursday.
As is almost always the case, the upper low will trail the surface low. The upper low will track over our area on Friday, still with a chance of showers and considerable clouds at times.
Originally Posted Sun 7:49 PM —A series of low pressure systems will move across the country into our area over the next few days. The latest GFS shows these disturbances—
Today’s 18z GFS forecast for 11 AM Monday shows several low pressure systems to affect our area this week. The first system will move somewhat south of us on Monday, with the heaviest rain staying to our south. (Click on image for a larger view.)
The first of these systems will bring rain to our area Monday. The trend has been for the heaviest rain to remain to our south. Rain starts about daybreak and continues through about 2-3 PM. Most of the immediate PHL area will get only 0.25″ to 0.35″ of rain, but areas in southern Chester and Delaware counties will have heavier rainfall.
The second two systems will merge into a deeper low that moves to the Great Lakes, bringing heavier rain Tuesday.
This same low will spawn a coastal low bringing rain again on Wednesday. An upper closed low will slow the departure of the Great Lakes low.
GEFS forecast for 5 PM on Wednesday. Coastal low shown. Great Lakes low with upper closed low (lighter blue) will maintain windy conditions through Friday. (Click on image for a larger view.)
