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This week, as high pressure moves to our east, the jet stream will flatten and the extremely cold air over our area for so long will moderate somewhat with temperatures approaching 41º by Wednesday. (Still below seasonal average of near 44º.)
Another slight dip in the jet flow will usher in some colder air again on Friday and Saturday. An approaching large system may bring a mix of rain and some frozen precipitation, but the odds favor wet vs white.
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Updated Saturday 02/07/26 @ 9:15 PM — Cold weather continues through Sunday with high temperatures again just reaching the upper teens. Wind chills, still low, will be somewhat better than Saturday.
By Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures moderate to the upper 30s as two disturbances shear off to our north and south. Little if any precipitation is expected except in far southern portions of the Delaware Valley.
Much of the rest of next week is transitional to somewhat closer to average temperatures, but still colder than averages. The graphics from last Thursday capture the changes.
The AI models are hinting at a major mixed precipitation storm next weekend. As has been the case with the longer range forecasts over recent weeks, these storm forecasts have not been overly consistent. But this system bears watching.
Originally Posted Fri 5:15 PM —Yet another strong cold front will swing through Friday night and another bout of very cold temperatures will be with us through Sunday. Some very light snow or flurries will break out with the front but any heavier activity will stay well to our north.
There’s been little change in the snow accumulation forecast with just a dusting to 0.5” possible in the Delaware Valley.
Low pressure developing off the coast along with high pressure building in will cause a pressure gradient resulting in winds gusting to near 40 mph late Saturday with resultant wind chills below zero late Saturday into Sunday.
Temperatures rebound above freezing by Tuesday.
The possibility of a major storm exists for Wednesday but the latest ECMWF-AI and AIGFS splits the energy into northern and southern components, thus sparing our area from another assault. But I’m watching this closely.
Mostly sunny, some clouds at times, very windy and bitterly cold
NBM high temperatures 22° in the very early morning but falling into the teens for most of the day and single digits at night . Wind chills -7° to – 12°.
Above Average Uncertainty (based on standard deviation): ± 4.3°
Sunny and continued very cold
NBM high temperatures: Blue Bell, PA 17º Philadelphia, PA 18º
Slightly Above Average Uncertainty (based on standard deviation): ± 2.8°
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Updated Thursday 02/05/26 @ 5:07 PM — Following the cold front that moves through late Friday night with a coating of snow possible, another outbreak of cold air will move in for Saturday and much of Sunday with single digit low temps and even colder wind chills. A slight warm up (warm up should be in ‘air quotes’ ) will bring temperatures back into the 30s for Monday and Tuesday. This will be due to a temporary flattening of the jet flow—
By next Tuesday, we have a flattening of the jet flow, allowing temperatures to reach the ‘warm 30s’. Another disturbance will likely bring about an inch of snow Tuesday night although the setup could result in an icy mix.
Unfortunately, the AI model is showing a return to the deep freeze dip in the jet by next Thursday and Friday.
Updated Thursday 02/05/26 @ 8:54 AM — The RRFS has again followed the lead of the ECMWF-AI model: even less snow expected for Friday night
Updated Wednesday 02/04/26 @ 9:59 PM — Another cold front will move through along with an Alberta Clipper Friday night. Light snow is possible with this system with most models showing a coating to as much as an inch, however most areas will see just a coating to 1/2”.
The clipper disturbance will blossom into a stronger storm well off the coast. High pressure moving in with very cold air (temps Saturday night near 2º ) and a strong pressure gradient will create wind chills well below zero later Saturday night.
Temperatures begin to moderate slightly next week, but remain still below average. Warm moist air and additional disturbances are setting up for unsettled conditions next week. Stay tuned.
Updated Tuesday 02/03/26 @ 10:47 PM — A series of cold fronts will affect us over the next few days. First is a front that moves through tonight. As mentioned yesterday, the low pressure system and its snow will stay to our south.
Continued cold but not as brutal through Friday. Another cold front moves through Friday night into Saturday morning. The latest AIGFS shows a coating of snow over our area, about 1/2” at most. The ECMWF-AI shows only flurries.
Then continued extremely cold through the weekend, with wind chills below zero again.
What had been seen as a possible warm up next week, in the Monday Tuesday time frame, now appears to be less warm and more complicated. An Alberta Clipper with an associated warm front may give us a period of snow on Tuesday. Several inches are possible with this system and a return to below average temps follows.
Updated Monday 02/02/26 @ 3:52 PM — The models have returned to forecast where the Tuesday night system stays to our south, affecting South Jersey. Just some flurries from the city north and perhaps a coating to our and South Jersey.
Posted Sunday 02/01/26 @ 7:07 PM —No sooner had I posted This Week’s Weather, then the latest GFS and RRFS became available. They are both showing some light snow accumulation beginning before daybreak Wednesday and ending early in the morning.
The earlier and AI models showed very little, so confidence is not high with this outlook.
Originally Posted Sun 5:12 PM — The cold weather continues this week with a disturbance passing to our south early Wednesday and a cold front with a clipper type disturbance passing through around Friday.
The Wednesday system will bring some snow flurries, maybe a coating at most here. The clipper on Friday had previously looked to bring an inch or so, but the models now have the energy transferring to a low off the coast, so again, little in the way of any snow on Friday.
The ECMWF and the ECMWF-AI are showing what may be just a temporary change in the upper air flow by next Monday or Tuesday (Feb 9-10th) as the persistent cold upper level trough will be replaced by a broad upper ridge. This will bring back closer to normal temperatures in the 40s. It’s too soon if it’s just a temporary change or if it will be persistent pattern change.
Here’s the current pattern. The red 500-1000 mb thickness line is a good indication of the jet stream position and shape in winter—
Here’s the latest ECMWF-AI forecast for next week (9th-10th) showing some upper level ridging and some more seasonable temperatures (40s) —
