Monthly Archives: February 2023

Philadelphia Area Weather Forecasts

THIS WEEK’S WEATHER

#weather #paweather #wx #pawx #philadelphia

Update Tue 2/21 7:10 PM — Looking over some other models suggests the showers on Wednesday are likely, starting between 11 AM and 1 PM. Most interesting is the HRDPS and GEFS which show a chance of the precip starting as snow flurries before changing to rain. I’ll have to see it to believe it.

Previously Posted Tue 5:26 PM —

A cold front has moved through Tuesday afternoon with some showers and gusty winds. Temperatures tonight will drop into the 30s.

The front will return on Wednesday as a warm front.

Wednesday

Several models are forecasting showers late Wednesday morning or early afternoon, although the HRDPS, and to some extent the HRRR, are suggesting the showers fall apart as they move north over Philadelphia. The NBM consensus is that we will have some light showers, but the amounts will be light. (< 0.05″) It will cloudy. High temp Wednesday 43-45º

Thursday

Thursday will start with some low clouds and perhaps fog, but skies will brighten for sunshine. High temperatures between 73º and 78º

Today’s 19z NBM mean high temp forecast for Thursday. sd= standard deviation. An sd of 5.5º is unusually high, indicating high uncertainty and spread among the models that comprise the NBM. (Click on image for a larger view.)

The chance of snow has faded from Saturday’s forecast from most models, except the latest ECMWF, which shows light snow, especially just south of the city, Saturday afternoon.

Philadelphia Area Weather Forecasts

THIS WEEK’S WEATHER

#weather #paweather #wx #pawx #philadelphia

Tuesday

This week’s weather continues to be defined by a warm — cold boundary that is waving northward and southward of our area while aloft, an extremely fast jet flow in excess of 210 miles/hr generating waves along this boundary.

GFS jet stream level (300 mb) wind speed on Friday. Note the 210 mph jet streak (white area) that remains persistent. (The winds in the jet streak are moving at 210mph… the jet streak area itself (the area of high winds) is hardly moving. A fast changing weather pattern, warm and cold with several impulses of low pressure rain will move through .

We’ll see the these rapid changes tomorrow (Tuesday) and Wednesday and later into at least next week.

Tuesday Forecast– A disturbance moves through after midnight tonight with showers, mostly ending by daybreak Tuesday. A few lingering showers possible Tuesday morning. Periods of clouds and sun Tuesday. Another front moves through Tuesday afternoon (2-4 PM) with a few scattered and locally moderate showers and even a thunderstorm (due to elevated CAPE in the 400 Joules/Kg range. )

Windy with the frontal passage. Skies clear in the later Tuesday afternoon. High Temps 54º-56º

A warm front moves through Wednesday afternoon with showers and possibly thundershowers.