Updated Wed 07:32 PM — Updated with latest HIREF model showing showers mostly to the east, not west.

Earlier this week, I mentioned that the closed, cut off upper air low pressure system might linger and that appears to be the case; it appears that it will affect our weather through at least Saturday.

The problem with all closed cut off upper lows is that the associated precipitation is difficult to accurately model and predict. So far this week, the models haven’t done all that well with the cloud cover prediction either.

So with that backdrop, I’m still tempted to try to talk about the showers over the next few days.

At least for tomorrow, Thursday, the models are suggesting we may get some much needed showers in the morning.

Same time tomorrow, different forecast:

However, the models are also predicting that any precipitation will be light and most of the showers will be west east of the immediate PHL area.   Our area gets less than 0.1 inches

So you’ll probably have to water your lawn soon if the models are correct about this.

There’s a somewhat greater chance of showers on Friday and Saturday, but again, the majority of the precipitation may miss the immediate PHL area.  I’m hedging here…upper cut off lows are tough to forecast.

The closed upper low formed as expected.  This upper air feature will persist until at least Thursday.

An easterly flow will bring increasing cloudiness as the week progresses.  High clouds on Monday will progress to variable amounts of middle and lower clouds Tuesday through Thursday.

An easterly flow will keep temperatures very cool for June, in the mid 70s.

As mentioned, the movement and weather associated with slow moving closed upper low circulations are difficult to forecast.  The forecast has already changed—the latest model forecast has this circulation remaining intact, instead of opening and lifting out Thursday.

Various models predict differing amounts of cloud cover each day.  We likely won’t see any rain until Thursday, but that may change too.   Even more uncertainty in the longer range, Friday through Sunday.