[su_note note_color=”#ffffff”]Updated Sat 08:23 AM — Clouds are beginning to thin out.

The most recent Model Blend (NBM) still shows scattered showers/thunderstorms between 3 PM -6 PM today, although not all models are on-board with this.  High temp 87.2º sd 2.8º (high spread)

National Blend of Models Simulated Radar forecast 3:30 PM Saturday.  (Click on image for a larger view.)


[su_note note_color=”#ffffff”]Updated Fri 10:34 PM —Tonight’s major models just becoming available.

Some refinements in the Saturday forecast—

Some clouds very early morning, break for sunshine through high clouds.

A secondary cold front moves through late afternoon. The models predict a narrow and small area of showers/thunderstorms and clouds moving through between 3 and 6 PM, dissipating as it moves east. [/su_note]

The main thunderstorm complex moved in an hour or so earlier than forecast, but that’s about as good as the models can get.

This weekend’s weather will be influenced by a building  upper trough (blue arrows)  and to some indirect extent, tropical storm Cristobal in the Gulf.  (For reasons I don’t understand, tropical storm/hurricane presence seems to affect model forecast accuracy; something just to keep in mind.)

SREF Forecast 4 PM Saturday  (Click on image for a larger view.)

Saturday will be a mostly sunny.   A weak upper air disturbance moves through about 3 PM; some high resolution models have some sprinkles possible, but other models do not.


  • Mostly sunny. Somewhat more clouds in the mid afternoon
  • Light sprinkles possible about 3 PM, but chances are low.
  • High Temp 86.8º sd 2.8º
  • Winds NW 5-10 mph gusts to 17

Sunday will continue to be influenced by this upper trough.  Sunny, dry and cool temperatures expected.

SREF Sunday 4 PM  (Click on image for a larger view.)
  • Sunny
  • Cool High Temp 77.6º
  • Somewhat windy NNW 10-12 mph gusts to 19