I’ve been following the model forecasts for the Thanksgiving holiday and a high consensus has developed regarding the weather on Thursday.

Low pressure in the Ohio valley will pass to our west as a warm front associated with the low moves through very early Thursday morning. It will become mild!

After some moderate rain very early morning, there may be a break in the action before additional showers develop during the day as a result of an upper air wave passing over us—

(A few days ago, it seemed that skies would clear Thursday morning, but it now appears this upper air wave will result in mostly cloudy skies with intermittent showers through the day before a weak cold front moves through during the evening.)

A weak cold front moves through during the evening hours.

There’s still a “relative lack of very cold air” to our north, as mentioned a couple of weeks ago. Some of the models are showing a deep dive of some cold air in Canada early next week which would shift our temperatures from above average to below or closer to average.

A series of weak frontal systems will pass through our area over the weekend. The general overview is that Saturday will be the nicer of the two days this weekend.

The latest GFS model shows some cloudiness moving in from the west Saturday afternoon. (Previous model runs had kept us sunny.) There’s uncertainty about light drizzle Sunday afternoon but the trend is towards some light scattered drizzle mid to late afternoon.

Saturday—

A weak cold front moves through before daybreak Saturday. A northwesterly flow of air moves in, but temperatures will be above seasonal averages. (average high 51º-52º)

Sunday—

As the high pressure system moves to our north, an easterly to northeasterly flow will develop for Sunday and significant cloudiness will develop.

Low pressure to our west will slide off to our northwest and a warm front will move through late Sunday and then a cold front Sunday night. Some, but not all models, are showing light showers and drizzle mid to late Sunday afternoon. It will be a stereotypical dark, cloudy November day although still mild.

I expect some clarification about the drizzle for Sunday. Stay tuned.