WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST

 

The weather wasn’t quite what had been forecast. The models over-predicted the thickness of the cloud cover today (at times the sun was breaking through mid-afternoon) and were off about the drizzle.

Sat 07:39 PM Update —Today’s models are less impressive with the drizzle for Sunday afternoon. Some are still showing drizzle, mostly mid to late afternoon.

A series of weak frontal systems will pass through our area over the weekend. The general overview is that Saturday will be the nicer of the two days this weekend.

The latest GFS model shows some cloudiness moving in from the west Saturday afternoon. (Previous model runs had kept us sunny.) There’s uncertainty about light drizzle Sunday afternoon but the trend is towards some light scattered drizzle mid to late afternoon.

Saturday—

A weak cold front moves through before daybreak Saturday. A northwesterly flow of air moves in, but temperatures will be above seasonal averages. (average high 51º-52º)

  • Mostly sunny skies, high to mid level cloudiness moves in during the afternoon, especially western suburbs.
  • Low temperature early morning 44.0º sd 2.6º (NBM model) Blue Bell
  • High temperature 61.6º sd 1.6º (NBM model) Blue Bell.
  • Winds light, NW–>N 5-8 mph

Sunday—

As the high pressure system moves to our north, an easterly to northeasterly flow will develop for Sunday and significant cloudiness will develop.

Low pressure to our west will slide off to our northwest and a warm front will move through late Sunday and then a cold front Sunday night. Some, but not all models, are showing light showers and drizzle mid to late Sunday afternoon. It will be a stereotypical dark, cloudy November day although still mild.

Thursday—

  • Cloudy with light showers possible through the afternoon.
  • Low temperature early morning 42.8º sd 2.5º (NBM model) Blue Bell
  • Mild. High temp 59.7º sd 2.0º (NBM model) Blue Bell area.
  • Winds SW–>WNW 12 mph.
Short Range Ensemble Forecast 3:00 PM Sunday. This SREF model does NOT show any drizzle, nor does the current NBM model. The higher resolution models do show drizzle.
High Resolution HIRESW-FV3 Model (Pre-release version) Simulated Radar 3 PM Sunday

I expect some clarification about the drizzle for Sunday. Stay tuned.