As first noted last night, Sunday’s forecast for late afternoon light showers has changed significantly.

A strong cold front will spawn coastal low pressure.  Rain will move in around  noon.  Winds will become gusty by late morning with gusts 35-40 mph. Accumulated rain will be about 0.4-0.6”, higher in NJ.   High temperature 53-55°

The actual cold front moves through between 5-6 PM with a shift in winds to the NW.  Still gusty winds.

Temps drop into the 30s during the Eagles game.  Winds gusty early will reduce somewhat by late evening.


Wed 03:56 PM Update — Today’s latest models continue with earlier exit of the rain and the passage of the weak cold front.

Some models have the rain ending as early as noon Thursday. The model blend has the rain ending between 12-2PM. Sunshine breaks out shortly after the rain ends.

A strong cold front moved through on Friday, following the departure of the remnants of what was Hurricane Zeta. Winds have shifted to the NNW and colder air will filter in for Friday night into Saturday.

Cold temperatures at daybreak Saturday. Most areas are forecast to be at or below freezing.

High pressure will be in control on Saturday but will quickly depart Saturday night and a return flow of milder air (and moisture) will move in for Sunday before another cold front moves through Sunday afternoon.

Saturday— High pressure and sunny skies

  • Mostly sunny skies, high to mid level cloudiness moves in during the afternoon, especially western suburbs.Low temperature early morning 44.0º sd 2.6º (NBM model) Blue Bell
  • High temperature 61.6º sd 1.6º (NBM model) Blue Bell.
  • Winds light, NW–>N 5-8 mph

Sunday— A warm front will bring mostly cloudy skies in the morning. A cold front moves through about 4:30 PM preceded by light showers.

SREF forecast showing dip in jet (red -540 thickness line) for Sunday at 7 PM
  • Low level clouds
  • Some scattered, light drizzle possible, during the mid to late afternoon.
  • Low temperature early morning 39.3º sd 1.6º (NBM model) Blue Bell
  • High temp 52.9º sd 2.4º (NBM model) Blue Bell area.
  • Winds E–>SE 10-12 mph with gusts to 15 mid afternoon.

Somewhat windy and cold for the Eagles/Dallas game Sunday night.


Additional rain is expected Thursday night into Friday morning.  Clearing is expected between 2 and 4 PM Friday.

Friday night and early Saturday morning will feature cold temperatures— at or below freezing for much of the area.

NBM Minimum Temperatures by 8AM Saturday  (Click on image for a larger view.)

Brief outlook for the weekend—

Saturday will be sunny and relatively chilly.  High temps around 48º.

Halloween evening— clear and dry with temps around 40º

Sunday will be milder in the morning with significant cloudiness, but a cold front moves in during the late afternoon preceded and accompanied by some showers/rain.  High near 58, but temps fall again during the evening following a quick dip in the jet stream.

Incredibly, the extended GFS model has another tropical storm/Hurricane forecast in two weeks.



Thursday 6:45 AM Update— Last night’s 2AM (06z) GFS still maintains the same 2-3” rainfall as previously posted. Rain begins to taper to lighter showers between 8-9 PM tonight.

Wednesday 10PM Update— Tonight’s models just becoming available have delayed the heavy rain onset to just after daybreak and have shifted the heaviest rain southward. Reduce the rain totals posted below by about 1 inch less than the amounts, shown except for Delaware.

Based on the latest GFS model, here’s the current total rain forecast expected from our encounter with the remnants of Zeta on Thursday—

GFS accumulated Rain Forecast  by Friday late morning.  (Click on image for a larger view.)

Rain will start between midnight and daybreak Thursday.  The heaviest rain will occur in the afternoon, tapering after 8 PM.  Highest wind gusts about 5 PM into early evening, about 30-35 mph.

Showers will continue into Friday morning or early afternoon as colder temperatures move in for Friday night, as discussed in yesterday’s post.