Philadelphia Weekend Weather & Storm Forecasts

Philadelphia Weekend Weather & Storm Forecasts

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SREF

« Back to Glossary Index

SREF = Short Range Ensemble Forecast. A probabilistic statistical model that consists of 21 short range models of the NAM type.

The model is run 4 times a day and it forecasts out to 89 hours.

« Back to Glossary Index

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Location of main forecast data point on map of Philadelphia region
These forecasts (temp, rain/snow, etc) are based on the weather model data for the location represented by the "X"— data specific to the weather model grid points: Fort Washington State Park and Blue Bell (KLOM) Montgomery County, PA. This data point is more central to the Philadelphia area at large than Philadelphia Airport (KPHL).

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Noteworthy

BillyPenn.com Interviews theweatherguy (2018)

Philadelphia Magazine Interview (2016)

Recent Posts

  • THIS WEEK’S WEATHER Tuesday, January 31, 2023 8:01 pm
  • THIS WEEK’S WEATHER Monday, January 30, 2023 10:10 am
  • WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST Friday, January 27, 2023 5:17 pm
  • THIS WEEK’S WEATHER Thursday, January 26, 2023 12:13 pm
  • THIS WEEK’S WEATHER Monday, January 23, 2023 6:05 pm

Definitions, Acronyms & Links

QPF: “Quantity of Precipitation Forecast”- given in inches, it’s the amount of water predicted to fall as measured in a rain gauge. For snowfall in inches, multiply the QPF by a factor of 10 – 15 (dependent upon temperature)

NAM: North American Mesoscale Model

GFS: Global Forecast System Model

WRF: Weather Research Forecast Model

HRRR: High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model

RAP: Rapid Refresh Model

MOS: Model Output Statistics

NBM: National Blend of Models

NAM FOUS: NAM Forecast Output Statistics

EKDMOS: Ensemble Kernal Density Model Output Statistics

SREF: Short Range Ensemble Forecast

CMC:  Canadian Meteorological Center Global Deterministic Prediction System

ECMWF: European Center for Medium Range Forecasts

HIRESW: High Resolution Window WRF

More info at these links–

Basic Weather Information

American Meteorological Society Glossary

Teaching Yourself Weather Forecasting

Philadelphia National Weather Service Office

How to install wgrib2 on Mac OSX

Jetstream Introduction to the Atmosphere-NOAA

More links…

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Weather… and Other Things 'Up in the Air'

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Earlier Online Forecasts Archives

Theweatherguy has been posting weekend weather and storm forecasts online since 1995.


theweatherguy's forecasts from 1995 through 2004 were part of the Bicycle Club of Philadelphia Web Site


theweatherguy's forecasts from 2004 through 2014
can be found at

http://theweatherguy.net/blosxom.cgi


Disclaimer

I am not a meteorologist and I provide this information as a hobby and for entertainment (mostly my own :-) .

While attempts are made to predict the weather as best as I can, use these forecasts at your own risk! I cannot be responsible for any direct or indirect consequential injury/damages due to your use of these forecasts.

Always check the NWS Official Forecast for your final plans.

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