Last night’s forecast for the storms moving in between 10 PM and midnight this evening is working out. The thunderstorms may linger for several hours after midnight.

For Friday, tonight’s models just coming in show widely scattered activity as early as 2 PM but the main thunderstorm complex will move in between 4 PM and 7 PM Friday.

[su_note note_color=”#ffffff”]Updated Thu 08:05 AM — Last night’s models continue with the same timing of the thunderstorms Thursday evening.  Some early scattered activity possible about 5 PM, but the main thunderstorm complex is predicted for 10 PM -12 midnight. [/su_note]

[su_note note_color=”#ffffff”]Updated Thu 07:20 AM — Last night’s models continue with the same timing of the thunderstorms Thursday evening.  Some early scattered activity possible about 6 PM, but the main thunderstorm complex is predicted for 10 PM -12 midnight [/su_note]

So, no forecaster and no model had predicted the bow-echo storms at noon today. The high temperature never reached the highly advertised 90°+ that had been predicted.

Last night’s models as well as the early morning HRRR model were particularly misleading; they certainly led me astray.   Had I only stayed with last evening’s forecast…

Let’s move forward.

Thursday’s expected storms are forecast to occur between 6 PM and midnight, with mid to late evening (9-midnight) most likely. Heaviest rain and dynamics stay to our south.