[su_note note_color=”#ffffff”]Updated Thu 07:07 AM — The 2AM (06 UTC) model runs are more optimistic about sunshine today. They have high pressure again suppressing clouds to our south for much of the day. [/su_note]
Thursday’s forecast had been looking clear cut– high pressure nosing in would continue to suppress clouds and moisture to our south.
Tonight’s HRRR and RAP models just became available (these short range models are the first to become available this early during Daylight Saving Time) have moisture and clouds just reaching Philadelphia. Areas just north of the city will have mostly sunny skies; areas just south look to be mostly cloudy.
For Thursday—
Areas just north of the city will have mostly sunny skies; areas just south look to be mostly cloudy.
It was very sunny out this afternoon. I’ve looked back at this morning’s models; almost every one of them had predicted significant cloudiness this afternoon. ( As I often say, a tropical system in the picture seems to throw off most model forecasts.)
The only one that got this sunny forecast right was the German ICON model.
I download the ICON model data daily as a curiosity; I have never based a forecast on it.
(Maybe I’ll need to look at the ICON model in the future when tropical systems are in the picture?)
ICON EPS forecast for this afternoon, Tuesday. (Click on image for a larger view.)
For Wednesday, most models repeat the same forecast- cloudy in the morning, with increasing sunshine in the afternoon. (The ICON model has the same forecast.) High pressure in the northeast strengthens and noses down into our area.
Wednesday—
Clouds in the morning, brightening late morning
Sunshine through some high clouds in the afternoon.
