Today’s weather featured a bit more cloudiness than had been forecast and the temperatures weren’t able to reach the predicted high. The front has stalled just a bit further north and over-running of moisture has to occurred today giving us the clouds.
As mentioned yesterday, it wouldn’t take much for the amount of rain expected on Sunday to increase, based on further intensification of the wave expected to form along the stalled front to our south. Indeed, the GFS and last night’s NAM suggested that rain might continue through the day on Sunday.
So while Friday’s model forecast had Philadelphia on the very northern fringe of precipitation on Sunday, things are now looking wetter.
This afternoon’s models are predicting a very cloudy and rainy Sunday. Rain starts in the morning and continues into the afternoon. High in the mid 60s.
Autumn, which begins tonight, continues with the rainy pattern we have had for much of this past summer.
Latest NAM maintains mostly cloudy conditions for Sunday. A northeasterly flow will bring cool conditions with highs in the mid 70s. Areas in NJ may have lingering showers.
9AM Sunday Update: I was surprised to wake up to widespread showers. Current radar has showers extending as far west as Reading. While lingering showers had been expected in NJ, this coverage of precipitation was not forecast for PHL and west. The latest short range models (HRRR, NBM-H) now have showers lingering until about 2-3 PM in PHL!
I can’t remember a time in the past where the model forecasts have repeatedly been so far off in the short range.
2 PM Sunday: Yet another update: The latest NBM-H has the showers lingering through the rest of the afternoon! Looking back to my Friday forecast, the GFS did better for Sunday’s forecast of showers all day.
A front will move through Philadelphia late this afternoon and early evening (Friday) with showers and thunderstorms. Some storms are developing ahead of the front this afternoon in the warm, humid air. The dynamics suggest the possibility of heavy thunderstorms in PHL, although the strongest dynamics may move through to our north.
Updated 9 PM Fri: The heaviest storms were well north of the Philadelphia area. Rainfall was less than forecast. The sky appearance was impressive
By Saturday morning, the front will have moved off the coastline resulting in sunny skies with gradually falling humidity/dew points as the day goes on. Highs will be around 86 with a light wind out of the west.
For Sunday, some cloudiness very early, then partly to mostly sunny. Lower dew points in the 60s and highs around 85.
A return to unsettled weather and humidity for early next week.