Category Archives: Weather Updates

Forecast Update

Rain should end between 7-9 am on Sunday and clouds will break to sunshine by afternoon.  High temp about 74.

Of continued interest is hurricane Irma.  Several models show it moving up the coast and coming inland over the Delmarva area and then over Philadelphia next Sunday evening as a category 3, possibly a category 4 storm . This potential scenario is over a week away, but the situation bears watching.  Changes in the predicted track are likely, so stay tuned.

Sunday AM Update: Last night’s models have changed the track to hit North Carolina-Virginia.  Expect more changes.  Of concern is that this storm does not look like it will go out to sea.  

Updated  multi-model Forecast :

Updated 9/3/17 Multi-model and Statistical Ensemble forecast Tracks

 

Previous Model Forecasts.

Previous (9/2/17)  GFS forecast for Sunday evening, Sept 10th
Multi model Forecasts

Fewer Showers Expected today

As reflected by my fast update to a ‘low confidence’ forecast last night, today’s weather forecast was anything but clear cut, with the NAM and GFS models having different forecasts.

Basically, the warm front has moved through the area.  Clouds this morning, with showers in NJ will dissipate by afternoon.  Expect brighter skies and maybe even some sun as early as noon or 2 PM.

The latest models keep a chance of scattered showers this afternoon, but I think it may be over-done.  It looks to be much drier overall for most of the afternoon; most of area rain-free, but still lower confidence than usual.

The models now have the cold front moving through later, around midnight instead of late afternoon.  Thunderstorms possible around midnight.

Forecast Update

I can see that Saturday’s forecast is going to be a below average confidence forecast. My previous forecast was NAM and HRRR based.

The area of showers predicted by the HRRR for this evening has failed to materialize.  So I’m going to switch over to a GFS-based forecast.  The GFS has showers later this evening and shows a high chance of showers and thunderstorms for Saturday afternoon.

I’ll update Saturday morning.

Heavier Thunderstorms last night- Clearing coming

The NAM model was a bit off last night.  The thunderstorms that passed through last night were heavier than forecast; they also passed through somewhat earlier than forecast.

The clearing that was expected mid morning is  on its way, closer to 11 AM  in the city and later in NJ.   Instead of full sunny skies (as forecast by the GFS and NAM), it looks like Saturday will have a mix of sun and clouds in the afternoon.