This past weekend’s weather was cloudier and wetter than had been predicted. Yesterday (Sunday), the clouds moved in several hours earlier than the models had predicted. Sunday afternoon’s rain at the shore and even here was significantly wetter than had been predicted by the models that prior morning.
For today, Memorial Day, both models show cloudiness for most of the day,
but with no precipitation.
11AM Update: The current weather shows the model forecasts to be wrong again. Areas of light showers have developed over our area, which were barely captured by the short range models earlier this morning. Do I dare say that they shouldn’t last?
The cloud deck should thin as the day progresses, so skies may brighten a bit in the mid to late afternoon, but don’t expect any blue skies.
With all the cool temperatures of this past month (with a few days of exceptions), one may wonder when we’ll see summer-like conditions. According to the NWS Climate Center, the forecast outlook is for temperatures to be well above average in this area for June and July.
This morning’s HRRR shows any precipitation today to be very light. Clouds move in around noon, with a chance of light, fast-moving sprinkles during the early to mid afternoon.
Well, the GFS model from yesterday blew this forecast and it appears the NAM is going to more closely capture the weather for today. Light showers have developed just to our west, as hinted by the NAM from yesterday afternoon (which had them moving through at noon).
So, today looks to be cloudy with light showers in the morning, likely ending by the early afternoon. Even cooler than expected, with highs in the low to mid 60s
With low pressure off of Cape Cod on Sunday, upper air disturbances (vorticities) will rotate through our area on Sunday. Timing of these upper air vorticities is difficult to nail down, but the NAM and to a less extent, the GFS, has a disturbance rotating through between 2 PM and 5 PM on Sunday.
Below average forecast confidence for Sunday, but best guess is that early clouds break for a mix of sunshine and some clouds in the morning and early afternoon. Cloudiness increases during the early afternoon and the upper air disturbance moves through between 2 and 5 PM giving us a chance of widely scattered showers. High temps near 70.