Update Mon 03/20 @ 9:42 AM — Spring begins at 5:24 EDT today and we’ll be seeing milder temperatures (actually, much milder temperatures) beginning Tuesday.
With all the talk on the radio about how warm it will be later this week, there’s not as much being said about the expected significant increase in clouds and likelihood of rain, perhaps as early as Thursday.
Currently, most models are showing rain moving in during the day Thursday with possible periods of moderate rain Friday and especially Saturday.
Today’s 06zNAEFS – There’s been good run to run consistency with this ensemble forecast for Friday and Saturday. The ECMWF and GFS operational models also show this multi-centered series of low pressure systems moving into our area. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Previously Posted Sun 5:03 PM —
A quiet first part of the week is expected, as high pressure that brought us the cold weather on Sunday moderates Monday through early Wednesday. Fair skies with moderating temperatures Monday through much of Wednesday.
Here’s the current forecast (SREF) for Tuesday evening—
SREF forecast for Tuesday evening. High pressure over the east coast will move out to sea. A cold front with some moisture (1) will bring some light showers here late Wednesday. A series of disturbances (2) on the west coast will eventually move eastward. Friday and next Saturday look to be wet at this time. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Update Tue 3/14 8:44 AM — Snow flurries/snow showers have developed, as predicted. Last night’s HRRR and RAP models have the likelihood of even greater snow shower coverage during the afternoon.
NEXRAD Radar at 7:54 AM today. Courtesy of WeatherTAP.com
Update Mon 3/13 7:20 PM — This afternoon’s models are predicting surface temperatures to drop to freezing just outside of the city Tuesday morning. There’s the chance of some icy conditions early that should dissipate by the mid morning in most areas.
Most of the precipitation still expected to be east of us, but wrap around moisture will cause snow showers during the day with high winds. Much of the snow shower activity may be later in the afternoon.
NBM temperatures and precipitation type at 7AM. Note the 32º line. The standard deviation is 1.6º meaning that there’s uncertainty where the freezing line is. It could be closer to the city, it could be further. Blue indicates increasing chance of snow showers. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Mon 03/13 @ 11:27 AM — Added wind meteogram below—
The NBM (which tends to be low with winds) is forecasting wind gusts in the 45-50 mph range for our area on Tuesday. (Click on image for a larger view.)
There has been an eastward trend to the storm track with the latest models. (Background on this storm can be found here.) This translates into lower total precipitation in our area to just 0.20 to 0.30 inches of precip (meaning rain or “snow water equivalent”.)
Here’s the latest NAM-NEST total precip forecast for this storm —
This morning’s 12zNAM-Nest shows the majority of the precip will be east of us and into New England. (Click on image for a larger view.)
With the reduction of total precipitation, the possibility of any accumulating snow here has been even further reduced to close to zero. The NAM-NEST shows almost nothing, the CMCHRDPS has a small accumulation near Doylestown.
For today, Monday, the rain doesn’t really get started here until 3-4 PM, moving in from the southeast.
The NBM shows this well—
Today’s 12z NBM forecast for 4 PM Monday. Rain moves in from the southeast as the storm intensifies in the Atlantic. Black is cloud cover. (Click on image for a larger view.)
As for the change of rain showers to snow showers, the NBM is showing the transition to occur early morning hours Tuesday. Most of Tuesday will be non-accumulating snow showers. The snow showers will linger until about 8 PM.
NBM shows an 81% chance of snow showers at 4 PM Tuesday. (Click on image for a larger view.)
