An upper level trough with cold high pressure that has been with us seemingly forever, will lift off to our northeast on Saturday. A disturbance passing to our north will bring just cloudiness Saturday night and during the morning on Sunday. Clearing Sunday afternoon.
WV image 5 PM today shows several disturbances that will pass to our north. The subtropical jet stream remains to our south, but a slight ridge tries to build in late Sunday into Monday. (Click on image for a larger view.)
The latest GFS shows the disturbances that will move to our north—
Today’s 18z GFS has the clipper-type disturbance moving to our north late Saturday. (Click on image for a larger view.)
By Sunday afternoon , the weak disturbance has moved to our northeast along with a weak trough. High pressure builds in from the west—
GFS forecast for Sunday 4 PM. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Saturday Forecast
Mostly sunny and continued cold. Increasing cloudiness in the afternoon. Temperatures still remain near or below freezing.
NBM high temperatures: Blue Bell, PA 31º Philadelphia, PA 32º Low uncertainty (based on standard deviation): ± 1.4º
Sunday Forecast
Cloudy in the morning. Winds increase along with gusts towards noon. Decreasing clouds in the afternoon with some sun likely during the Eagles game. Wind decrease towards late afternoon.
NBM high temperatures: Blue Bell, PA 39º Philadelphia, PA 41º Low uncertainty (based on standard deviation): ± 1.2º
Just out of curiosity, the ECMWF AI forecast is still forecasting 50º + temperatures for Wednesday while the operational models have us just in the mid 40s The NBM shows the standard deviation for the high temp on Wednesday to be an incredibly high: ± 7º. I’m curious how it plays out.
BTW, much more active weather is likely beginning next weekend. Punxsutawney Phil will have his hands (paws) full. Stay tuned.
Posted Thursday 01/23/25 @ 5:09 PM — Except for the very cold temperatures, nothing much is happening weather-wise here. There will be a gradual ‘warmup’ towards near to slightly above normal highs by Sunday and Monday before another weak cold front moves us back into the cold for the middle of the next week.
For the Eagles game, it appears that Sunday will start cloudy but cloudiness will diminish during the afternoon. High temperatures Sunday remain about 41º± 1.6º at the Linc but it will be windy and gusty in the early afternoon.
Since there are no storms to watch for the coming days, I’ve been looking at the ECMWF AI model. Curiously, it is forecasting highs in the mid 50s for next Wednesday while the regular ECMWF has us back in the 30s—
Today’s 12zECMWF-AIFS temperature forecast for next Wednesday. I need to point out that this model remains the only model forecasting such a warmup, but it’s consistently forecast this. The regular ECMWF has temperatures back in the 30s! Just an interesting experiment to see how good this AI model really is. (Click on image for a larger view.)
What the models do show is a warmup around Feb 1st-2nd with possibly heavy rain.
Forecast Update
Posted Wednesday 01/22/25 @ 9:45 AM — One can always tell when there’s not much happening weather-wise; there’s a focus on the temperatures. Albeit, these are somewhat uncommon temperatures for our area and more so, the southern Gulf states. (It’s still the Gulf of Mexico in my book.)
Yes, it’s cold out there—my consumer-grade weather station recorded a low of 4º this morning.
Continued cold weather is expected through Saturday with a gradual warmup.
For the Eagles game on Sunday, here’s the current ECMWF-AI forecast—
00z ECMWF-AIFS forecast temperatures for Sunday at 1 PM. It should be noted that the model blend (my usual go-to model for temperatures) is only forecasting a high of 41º ± 1.6º (Click on image for a larger view.)
The trend gets better by next Wednesday—
00z ECMWF-AIFS temperatures for next Wednesday. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Again, I’m posting the ECMWF-AIFS. My usual go-to model for temperatures is the model blend (NBM).
Most if not all of the storm tracks are to our south this week.
Posted Tuesday 01/21/25 @ 11:36 AM — The cloudiness forecast for today are still on the way, according to several models. We’ll likely see cloudiness by 2 PM, especially areas from the city southward.
Of interest are some disturbances in the jet flow just to our south. The latest Canadian and ECMWF show some light snow (flurries to coating) in Cape May and surrounding areas later this evening. There’s even the chance of some flurries here in the city, especially areas southward.
WV image 11:30 AM showing embedded disturbances expected to pass mainly to our south, but the northern fringe will brush southern areas this evening. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Posted Monday 01/20/25 @ 6:08 PM — One more thing. An very fast jet stream will be overhead tomorrow (225 mph winds!) with embedded areas of vorticity (disturbances). The GFS is forecasting quite cloudy skies tomorrow, Tuesday.
Previously Posted Mon @ 4:59 PM — The extreme cold weather expected this week has been well-advertised. High temperatures in the teens and lows in the single digits.
Here’s the current water vapor image—
Current satellite water vapor image with superimposed RAP model 500-1000 mb thickness lines (yellow), jet level wind streamlines (orange contour-arrows) potential vorticity (fine violet contours) and superimposed MRMS radar. Large High pressure and deep cold. (Click on image for a larger view.)
I don’t know about you, but I find it a bit confusing and misleading when the TV weather people flip back and forth between wind chills and actual temperatures. The words “conjured sensationalism” come to my mind.
With the large cold high pressure over us, any storm development appears to be suppressed to our south. A low pressure system north of the Great Lakes Thursday and an associated cold front will bring some clouds at times later in the week. More cold pressure expected to reinforce this cold weather into the weekend.
NAEFS forecast for Thursday. Low pressure will move off the southeast coast is expected to move away from us as more high pressure builds in. (Click on image for a larger view.)
There may be a few upper air disturbances that move through during the week, but nothing stands out right now.
