WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST

The forecast for this weekend has not appreciably changed since  the outlook I posted on Tuesday.  Low pressure in the Midwest and associated warm front to our south will send an impulse eastward over our area on Saturday —

Today’s SREF for Saturday showing rain

Saturday will be cloudy with light rain for much of the day.  Total rainfall varies by model, but about 0.5 inches likely.  An easterly wind flow will keep things cool, with a high of 49-52º.

For Sunday, some showers early as low pressure departs.  The warm front to our south will attempt to move to our north during the day.  The models are showing a slow movement of this front, with clouds much of the day, with some bright spots mid-day.  Showers develop in the afternoon.  The actual warm front moves through about 4-6PM, preceded and accompanied by showers and possibly some thunderstorms. 

It will be increasingly mild on Sunday with highs near 65-68º towards later in the afternoon.

There is uncertainty about the timing of the frontal passage and it may occur later, towards evening.  Some models point to low pressure development off the coast, which would further delay the warm air arriving. 

Stay safe and healthy.  I’ll update over the weekend for Sunday’s forecast.

WEEKEND WEATHER OUTLOOK

As posted earlier in the week, we are caught in a pattern  of unsettled weather tracking along and north of a stalled frontal boundary to our south.

The first impulse comes through early Friday morning with light rain, ending during the morning with some partial clearing and some sunshine during the afternoon.  It will be mild with high temps near 68º!

For Saturday, a more significant disturbance tracks from west to east through our area.  Most of the us will see at least 1/2 inch of rain.  An easterly flow will keep temperatures fairly cool.  High temp 50º.

For Sunday, the warm front that has been to our south gradually moves through late Saturday night though Sunday.  Clouds with some scattered showers is most likely in the morning, but some models have additional showers early afternoon.  It will become very mild later in the afternoon.  High 69º.

Here’s the EKDMOS high temp forecast for Friday through Sunday:

EKDMOS High Temps for Blue Bell PA

I’ll fine tune the forecast Friday night.

WEEK WEATHER OUTLOOK

An active and wet pattern is setting up for this week and especially this weekend.  Low pressure  developing in the middle of the country from a persistent jet stream dip spawn waves of low pressure passing over us almost every other day through the weekend.  The track of these waves will be along a stalled frontal boundary.

It should be said that there are uncertainties in the forecast for this week and weekend and this is reflected in the increasing ‘spread’ of the  EKDMOS high temperature forecast—

EKDMOS high temperature forecast 10 percentile, mean, 90 percentile shows high spread later in the week and weekend indicating increasing uncertainty.

For today, Tuesday, clouds should break for sunshine by noontime.

Wednesday, the first wave of low pressure approaching from the west will bring clouds and rain  according to the SREF

SREF (Short Range Ensemble Forecast) for Wednesday   (click for larger images)

I should add that the GFS has this wave on Wednesday passing more to our south along with its rain, so the short range forecast isn’t high confidence either.

A break in the action for Thursday.

Friday, another wave approaches with rain—

GEFS (GFS ENSEMBLE FORECAST) for Friday morning

For the weekend, the low pressure deepens in the center of the country and deeper waves of low pressure move along a frontal boundary towards us—

GEFS Weekend setup for more rain both Saturday and Sunday.

There currently are differences/uncertainties in the forecast between the short range models (SREF, NAM, etc) and the longer range global models (GFS, CMC) as early as Wednesday, so changes are possible as the week and weekend unfolds. Stay tuned.