[su_note note_color=”#bceaed”]We had the clouds and light snow flurries.  High temps were much lower than forecast, closer to 32º.[/su_note]

Quick Update: Don’t let the early sunshine this morning fool you.  The models are all-onboard for upper air disturbances to move through late morning into the afternoon; expect clouds by late morning and very light, scattered snow flurries mid-afternoon.  High temps look closer to 37º.

The graphic below is from this morning’s RAP (Rapid Refresh Model) showing upper air disturbances expected to move through beginning late morning (10-12 PM and through the afternoon.)  Expect an increase in low level cloudiness.

Rapid Refresh Model forecast for 12 Noon- orange-yellow color shading is “absolute vorticity”


The cold and windy conditions will continue through Saturday. We had some scattered snow flurries today, not mentioned by last night’s TV forecasts but very much predicted by the high resolution models last night and this morning.

Saturday will be similar to Friday, weather-wise.  A cold cyclonic flow aloft  from an upper trough (shown in yesterday’s graphic) will bring significant cloudiness  and perhaps some more snow flurries during the day.  Still somewhat windy, with high temps a chilly 36º-39º.

NBM Wind and Wind Gust forecast Sat and Sun.  Click for larger image.

Sunday, the upper trough departs to our east and winds turn to the southwest later in the afternoon. Sunny.  Less windy, highs 43º to 45º


The strong cold front that moved through early Friday morning has brought much colder weather to our area.

The deep low pressure system to our northeast will affect our weather on Friday and the upper air trough and upper cyclonic flow will bring cold, windy conditions for Saturday, moderating Sunday.

GFS forecast 500 mb  height Upper Air contours (18,000 feet)  (blue lines) for Saturday 12 noon.

With several areas of vorticity and unstable cyclonic flow, it’s looking like we’ll have a mix of sun and periods of low level cloudiness on Saturday.  High 41º (EDKMOS) seems too high.  The NBM has a high of 36º  (It’s likely to fall somewhere in the middle).

The GFS has it windy both days:

GFS wind and gust forecast Sat and Sun,      Winds 20-30 mph from WNW.

The NBM blend has winds lower than this.

For Sunday, the upper trough moves to our east.  It will be mostly sunny and but still somewhat windy.   High 45 (EKDMOS) or 44 (NBM).

For snow lovers, there’s still nothing in the extended model forecasts.   Warmer weather again next week.