WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST

An easy forecast for this weekend— High pressure builds in behind the departing low for Saturday and Sunday.

Saturday: Early morning clouds, breaking for sunshine between 7 and 9 AM.  Sunny and windy.   High 47º.

Sunday: Sunny and mild. Less wind.  High 60º

Monday: Mostly sunny.  High approaching 70º!

Update Fri 11:48 AM — This morning’s models have decreased the total accumulated rain to 0.27-0.43 inches water.   Yesterday, the models were cranking out ~ 0.6 inches of water.


Update Fri 10:29 AM — The latest HIRESW-ARW MEM2 shows a critical temperature for snow remains too far north of our area; it will be too warm for snow.

HIRESW-ARWMEM2 has 925 mb freezing temp too far north at 2PM.

By the time this level chills off, most the precipitation will have moved away.  A few wet flakes early evening, maybe.


This morning’s newest upper air measurements (called “soundings”) were done at 7AM and incorporated into the latest Rapid Refresh Model (RAP) Analysis which just became available.  Soundings are done worldwide via the launch of weather balloons with attached radiosondes twice a day, at 7 AM and 7 PM EST  (0 and 12 UTC).

Despite the colder surface temps observed this morning. there is still a strong southwesterly flow of warm air at levels of 1500 feet which will keep temps above freezing at critical snow temperatures, as predicted by the models.

Here’s something called a SKEW-T diagram, which plots temperatures and dew points as a function of height.  This one is derived from the latest RAP model.

RAP SKEW-T diagram for 7 AM Friday.  The Red line (Temperature) stays above freezing with increasing height.  Wind flags with height are shown on the right.

So I guess the predominant model forecast for predominantly rain, maybe with some wet snow flakes later today, appears to be the best bet.

“Yes, I know this ‘storm’ doesn’t merit the attention I’m giving it, but I’m just honing my skills for next winter.  🙂 “

The newest HRESW-ARW MEM2 will become available about 10 AM.

This morning’s surface temperatures are already running 6-8ºbelow last night’s model forecasts.

Add some dynamic cooling if we get high precipitation rates and the rain forecast may be off.  We’ll have to watch if a mix with or a change to snow occurs earlier than previously forecast.