Friday’s weekend forecast missed some of the salient details. Moisture moved in earlier than expected today resulting in considerable mid level cloudiness today. This also kept the temperatures from reaching the expected highs.
The models have been very consistent in predicting a significant rainstorm for Monday. Exact placement of the heaviest rain always difficult to nail down, but the GFS and NAM have 1-3 inches possible by late night Monday.
Not unexpected, models often don’t pick up upper air disturbances in the upper flow
The Tropical Prediction Center has moved the expected track of hurricane Joaquin westward and has delayed the arrival of the storm (then expected to be a tropical storm) until Monday in our area.
The majority of the experimental tropical models, though, keep the track even more westward and southward, into the Carolinas and then Kentucky. Stay tuned.
As I said on Friday about today’s (Sunday) forecast:
“Unfortunately, the models do poorly with the placement of precipitation around closed lows, so we could have partly sunny skies or even showers. Depending on the amount of sun, it could be 72-77 as a high temperature.”
I didn’t try to update this view yesterday, since nothing changed.
So looks like we are having all of the above today- sun, clouds and the radar is even showing some showers developing to our south and moving northward.