Tonight’s NAM has become available.  It cranks out an amazing amount of precipitation.  QPF from 7 PM to 2 AM is 0.72 inches of water.  We’re already half-way through.

In my neck of the woods just northwest of the city, it’s been a mix for several hours.   We have about 2.5 inches of snow/sleet accumulation on the wooden deck, less on paved surfaces.

The mix of sleet,  snow and rain should expand northwestward until about 11 PM to the position shown in green.

After 11 PM, it should start  moving back southeastward, changing the mix back to all snow. By midnight to 1 AM, even Philadelphia will have the mix change to snow.

Depending upon your location, additional accumulation will occur, possibly 2 more inches, more north and west.  Temperatures remain in the 32 to 33 degree range.

However, the remaining snow tapers off rapidly and ends after 2 -3 AM tonight.

So, the latest HRRR (hourly) shows significantly more snow than I’ve been forecasting.   Here’s the latest HRRR snow total forecast:

If there’s no change to more sleet and rain, this could be what we get.

The NBM still maintains snow totals in line with my posted forecast.  I guess we’ll see.