FORECAST UPDATE

Whoops….we may need to cancel those sunny breaks I forecast within the past hour. I took a look at the very low level cloud deck and it hangs firm until very late.

Very low level clouds

The latest GFS has some breaks of sun coming in sometime between 1 and 5 PM due to a dry slot from the south.High temperatures are also coming in much lower than predicted-

Revised High Temps

High temps in the 53-55 range, occurring later in the afternoon:

Orange low to mid 50s.

DAYLIGHT SAVING TIME & WEATHER MODEL FORECASTS

My post from last year about Daylight Saving Time and the forecasts you see on the 10 and 11 PM TV news is useful information to check out.

The short version is that the latest runs of the GFS and other global models are not completed nor available in time for the late night TV weather segments when we switch to Daylight Saving Time on the east coast.

Indeed, the first “products” of the GFS model first become available about 11:32 EDT.

With the exception of the NAM, the forecasts you see on the 10PM or 11PM (east coast)  news/weather can only be based on older model runs from the short range models and [possibly] the newest NAM.   Indeed, some of the short range models at those times are, in turn,  “initialized” from the earlier afternoon NAM model, not necessarily the latest!