WEEKEND WEATHER OUTLOOK

This post will be a ongoing collection of observations and thoughts about the upcoming weekend weather.

Wed PM – Tonight’s NAM shows no thunderstorms for Thursday and highs near 82. Tonight’s NAM has the rain tapering early Sunday morning.

Wed AM – Very warm on Thursday. Looking towards the weekend, it looks like an easterly flow will keep temperatures not as warm as previously expected. It appears that most of the periods of rain will occur during the nighttime hours, although it may linger into Sunday morning. 

Tues PM – Tonight’s NAM shows a change of forecast -The warm front that moves through Wednesday returns as a backdoor cold front Thursday night. Friday not as warm as previously thought.

Tues AM -A warm front will slowly move north of our area on Wednesday, opening up a flow of  moist, warm air from the southwest. Weak impulses embedded in this southwesterly flow will give us a chance of showers Thursday through Sunday morning.   The main low pressure system is expected to move over our area on Saturday night.

So, there’s a chance of showers almost every day, according to the EKDMOS.   We are getting into the season where the normal “background probability” is about 20-25%, but this is looking higher.

EKDMOS 6 hour rain probability

Temperatures may reach into the mid to upper 80s on Thursday.    Reviewing the FV3-GFS, we may be lucky and the showers occur mostly during the  evening and night time hours.

Sunday Forecast Update

[su_box title=”Weather Forecast Update Sun 8 AM” box_color=”#defcdc” title_color=”#000000″]Last night’s NAM has light showers, drizzle in our area for much of the day. Total QPF less than 0.20 inches water. (The GFS keeps the precip to our north.) Staying with last night’s forecast, I’m leaning towards the light scattered showers/drizzle. [/su_box]

The forecasts have been less than consistent for Sunday even in the short range.  The GFS and NAM have alternated with each model run about the placement of showers for Sunday. The latest NAM keeps the precipitation to our north.  The GFS from this afternoon has light showers in the morning in our area. Both maintain clouds now for most of the day, possibly clearing late.  It will be cool. High 59-61.

The new GFS isn’t yet available as of this post.  I’m thinking there will be light showers, scattered, in the morning.  Sometimes we just don’t know.