Fri 08:48 AM Forecast Review — The heavy rain had a sharp westward cutoff, as eventually predicted by the models late afternoon and evening yesterday.  Here’s radar image from 4 AM  showing the the heavy rain had a strong east-west cut off—

Updated on Thu 10:46 PM Tonight’s models have reduced the amount of rainfall and moved the heavy rain further eastward.

Updated on Thu 7:30 PM highlighted below

The latest Canadian Regional GEM model captures the sharp western cutoff in expected heavy rainfall that several afternoon models are showing—

The latest ICON model, which did very well with last year’s tropical storms, has the heavier rain further westward.

Updated on Thu 5:59 PM highlighted below

The afternoon model runs just are becoming available. The HRRR, the GFS and the HREF have a sharper cut-off of the heavy rain just west of Philadelphia with the heaviest rain most similar to the Model Blend NBM graphic below in the original post..

Updated on Thu 1:54 PM highlighted below

With the more westward track of the storm, the latest GFS has moved in the direction of the ICON and HREF models with 1.5-3.5″ of rain, extending into the Philadelphia area.

The latest ICON model (which did very good with last year’s tropical systems) has less rain accumulation-

Model Blend (which underestimated rainfall with last year’s tropical systems)

see my Elsa post from Monday

A cold front is approaching from the Great Lakes and a pre-frontal trough will move through Thursday afternoon. Showers and thundershowers expected after 4 PM. Most of the thunderstorm activity will be expected in the far northwest areas, with heavy rain showers later this afternoon and evening in the Philadelphia area.

The remnants of tropical storm Elsa moves in later this evening and will affect us during the night time hours. The main effects of this storm will be high precipitable water and heavy rain. Not much wind expected (30 mph gusts), mostly at the shore. The storm exits early Friday morning.

Rainfall when it ends will be in the 1.5-2.5 1.5-3.5 inch range. Exact placement of the heaviest rain a challenge. The GFS keeps much of the heavy rain in NJ while the higher resolution models and the ICON have it overspreading the Philadelphia area. The Canadian GEM has the heaviest rain near Philadelphia! I’m leaning towards the heavy rain making it into Philadelphia.