As mentioned this morning, Matthew does not appear to pose a threat to the mid Atlantic area in the near term.
The trend for Florida is more ominous. The latest GFS and Navy NAVGEM model, along with specific short range hurricane models, now have the storm moving up into Florida instead of staying off the coast. This is a serious situation. Please check the National Hurricane Center for more updates on this storm.
The latest computer models show a more westward track for Hurricane Matthew, either hugging the coast of Florida, or with the Navy NAVGEM model, actually moving over Florida.
The models also show a slower progression of the storm northward, very bad for the US SE coastline and Florida, but potentially sparing our area from the storm.
With a slower moving storm, an upper air trough and cold front may sweep this out to sea after the storm passes the outer banks of NC. Timing of both features will be everything.
Another tropical storm, Nicole, has formed east of Hurricane Matthew. This will increase the challenge and complexity of the computer modeling of Matthew.
Link to the National Hurricane Center
A very serious situation exists for the Caribbean, as Hurricane Matthew has intensified into a Category 4 storm.
As mentioned over a week ago, this storm formation has been relatively well-predicted by the models for almost two weeks, which is very impressive. When it comes to hurricanes, details such as speed and direction of movement have enough variations; when incorporated in the global forecast models, it’s creates havoc with a dependable deterministic forecast.
The blocked pattern in the northern Atlantic appears to be re-establishing itself, which would cause Matthew to veer towards the US. east coast. The potential of a blocking setup was depicted by the GFS model for well over a week.
That said, except for intensification, the storm’s general path has been relatively close to the one predicted, except the timing has been slower by several days. The current GFS takes the storm into the SE coastline of the US later this week and it might affect us next Saturday. Stay tuned.
Latest short-range HRRR and LAMPS forecasts continue with a good chance of light showers and drizzle Saturday. The GFS based LAMPS has a higher chance of showers in the late morning and early afternoon hours.
As for Hurricane Matthew , it has strengthened to a strong category 4 storm and the track and recent intensification has deviated somewhat from the model predictions.
This continues to be a storm that needs to be watched for potential impact on the east coast and possibly our area the end of next week.