Category Archives: Tropical Storm Outlooks


Hurricane Dorian continues to follow the track predicted by the greatest consensus of models.

Here’s the current COAMPS-TC forecast track, which like many other models, has the storm brushing the South Carolina and North Carolina shores—

COAMPS-TC  forecast from Wednesday morning


Hurricane Dorian will affect our area at a distance of Friday.  Here is the latest SREF (Short -Range Ensemble Forecast) for Friday afternoon.

A chance of light showers at the Jersey Shore, windy conditions for Friday.  (The GFS and NAM keep the shore dry.)  Winds 20-25 mph with some higher gusts.

Cloudy conditions expected even into the Philadelphia area.


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The latest models continue with hurricane Florence hitting north Carolina, somewhat further south than predicted earlier in the week.  The path southward and then into the US continues to be forecast.

Another change is a decrease in anticipated intensity.  While intensity forecasts are even less reliable than hurricane track forecasts, the latest show Florence to approach as a category 2-3 hurricane and reduce quickly to a category 2.  This is less severe than forecast earlier in the week.

Current tracks (various models) as of Thursday morning.

predicted tracks graphic
Various model predicted tracks as of 8AM Thursday.

The anticipated lingering of the storm along the coast for 24 hours will still result in major wind damage and severe flooding  despite the decrease in intensity level.

The forecast for the Philadelphia area still calling for dry conditions over the weekend.  The cloud shield from the storm may result in overcast conditions.  The statistical models suggest that the remnants of the hurricane will result in heavy rains sometime in the  late Monday  to early Wednesday time frame in our area.



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There’s increasing agreement among the hurricane/tropical models that Florence will approach the North Carolina coast and linger, perhaps for 36 hours before either turning slightly southward or inland.  Prolonged high winds and heavy rain is in store for NC.  A bad situation.

GFS forecast
GFS Forecast for Sat 2 PM

For our neck of the woods, the various models have windy conditions for Cape May to Atlantic City with winds 30-40 mph with some higher gusts.  A mix of some sun and clouds.  The statistical models show the possibility of intermittent showers too.

For Philadelphia, north and west, mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions and no showers for the weekend, based on the GFS (although the statistical models maintain a low chance of showers.). This is consistent with the subsidence that occurs a certain radius from a hurricane.   It’s not clear how far away the cloud circulation from the hurricane may extend.  Overall, Philadelphia may not experience much of anything until Monday or Tuesday with the remnants of what will be a tropical storm then passing over us.

As with any hurricane, the anticipated track is known to change considerably, so forecast changes are likely.  But based on current models, this is what to expect.

Irma Update- Friday

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Last night’s models have moved the track a bit to the west, possibly making landfall near Naples FL and then moving up through west-of-center of the state.   The storm is expected to hit Florida as a Category 4.   The consensus track (white) on the graphic below is the current most likely track.  The National Hurricane Center’s track is a bit east of this line.

Current model Tracks 12z Friday