[su_note note_color=”#ffffff”]Updated Thurs 10:45 PM— Tonight’s HIRESW model just became available. It shows significant moisture convergence and vertical dynamics at 1 PM and again at 5 PM. This suggests showers/thunderstorms are possible around Philadelphia. The HIRESW has been doing well. This may negate the forecast below. I guess we’ll find out.
HIRESW model 5 PM moisture convergence (red) and vertical velocity (black)
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A broad upper cyclonic flow will replace the closed upper low on Friday. An area of moisture and clouds moves through mid day Friday.
So mostly sunny with a period of cloudiness Most areas will not have any showers on Friday. High 83.9° sd 1.8°. Dew points in the mid 60s.
Right now, the weekend is looking similar— increasingly warm and more humid. Most areas near Philadelphia won’t have any showers.
[su_note note_color=”#bceaed”]Forecast Review— We had additional showers this morning. Clouds did break in the afternoon. The HRRR model did poorly. Looking back, the HRESW and the NAM NEST were more on target. [/su_note]
The models have clearing skies from the southwest for Thursday. The predicted light showers we had earlier this morning appears to be all the showers most of us will have today.
The HRRR shows clouds dissipating by afternoon and most areas without any showers this afternoon.
HRRR model 3:30 PM forecast for cloud cover and precip (Click on image for a larger view.)
Updated Thu 10:10 AM — It’s somewhat of a low confidence forecast, since this is a change from last night’s model forecasts. Additionally, the HRRR doesn’t reflect the current radar situation.
