6:20 PM : Latest GFS and NAM show almost no snow accumulating in Philadelphia and much of NJ. Areas north and west of Allentown may have more than an inch.
12:35 PM: Latest Canadian and NBM models show decreased QPF and temps too warm to accumulate near Philadelphia. This supports the new GFS. Some light snow falling, but not expected to accumulate. A coating, at most. The earlier NAM and NAM Nest are now outliers.
10:43 AM: Latest GFS just available has less than 1/2 inch for most of our area. Too warm! The HRRR has almost nothing.
Last update before I head out the door. So many models, so little time!
Latest NBM, NAM-NEST and WRF-ARW available. I’ll cut to the chase:
I think the NAM-NEST is the best bet and supported by the NBM.
Last night’s models (they’re re-run again at 1AM, EST and become available between 3 AM and 6AM) had a wide range of snow totals.
The NAM had extremely high QPF values, which I think is an outlier, although in the ‘old days’ of doing my forecasts I would have taken it more seriously, The high resolution NAM NEST had the following snow totals by 11 PM tonight—
The statistical version of the GFS, the GEFS, which is a lower resolution model had the following—
Last night’s European (ECMWF) had a similar map as the NAM NEST above, with a coating in the city.
I’ll be posting some of the latest models from this morning (HRRR and NAM NEST) when they become available, before I head out the door for work.