FORECAST UPDATE- CLEARING TODAY?

Update 10 AM: I just downloaded the new HIRESW NMMB2 and HIRESW ARW2  (yes, so many  models, so little time.)  They are a little less optimistic about clearing.  At best, patchy clearing with highly scattered sprinkles possible, increasing about 4-5 PM.

HIRESW NMMB2      2 PM Simulated Radar and cloud cover

Well, we’re going to get a bike ride in, I hope.

…from earlier—

The low clouds and widely scattered showers were expected this morning.

I just downloaded the very latest NAMNEST, HRRR and RAP model data.

All models have winds shifting to the west about 11-12:30 PM, bringing in some drier air.  The HRRR is most optimistic about seeing some sun and bright skies by 12-2 PM.  The NAM NEST also has brightening skies by 2 PM, although not as clear as the HRRR.

I’m using the (sometimes unreliable) built-in cloud parameters, but clearing also supported by looking at the humidity fields.

HRRR cloud forecast 2 PM  (Arrow shows clearing skies)
NAMNEST Cloud Forecast 2 PM  Arrow points to few clouds.
NAM 3-D humidity below 70% (grey, not blue here!) shows areas of clearing.

The models maintain an increased chance of showers again about 4-7 PM as the main front moves through and again this evening.

We’ll see if the patchy clearing occurs as predicted.