So the rain moved in earlier than expected, closer to the GFS- based LAMPS than the NAM-based HRRR. In fact, the HRRR did poorly; one of the few times I can think of where the LAMPS did better than the HRRR. Will have to try again next weekend!
The lack of consistency and accuracy with the model forecasts this weekend is almost enough to force me into finding a new hobby.
The 2am runs of the models has the GFS bringing rain by early afternoon. The GFS-based LAMPS short range has rain by mid morning here. The NAM still holds off most of the rain until late afternoon and this evening. The NAM-based HRRR shows rain moving into PHL about 3 PM.
The further north you are from PHL, the earlier the rain starts.
So there you have it. The HRRR did well yesterday so about 3 PM looks like a good bet here in PHL. Areas to our north, in Bucks county, upper Montgomery counties and Trenton, already have rain or will have it starting in the morning. Areas as close as Blue Bell might have rain starting later this morning, according to the LAMPS.
Tonight’s NAM model data has yet another change in the forecast for Sunday. Mostly cloudy conditions forecast, but the latest NAM holds off most of the rain until late afternoon. The earlier NAM and GFS had heavy rain by mid afternoon Sunday. (Due to Daylight Saving Time, the new GFS won’t be available until after my bedtime.)
But the latest data we have suggests a Sunday that is drier than previously expected. Still moderate rain expected for Sunday night.
The latest HRRR forecast shows showers and thunderstorms moving along the frontal boundary and staying south of PHL.
HRRR simulated radar forecast for 5 PM Saturday
The latest NAM has rain for Sunday, starting late morning and continuing heavy through Sunday afternoon and evening. The latest GFS is similar, but shows less QPF for Philadelphia on Sunday afternoon.
With all the thunderstorms that have moved through Philadelphia this afternoon and evening, there are areas to the immediate northwest that have barely gotten anything.
Showers and thunderstorms should continue tonight, ending before daybreak.
Sunday should look similar.to today, with a mix of clouds and sun. Essentially dry for much of the day. An easterly wind will make things much cooler with a high of about 67.
Clouds increase late in the afternoon with showers developing late afternoon.
