The models are again holding back the rain until late afternoon.
Based on the latest model runs, very light scattered sprinkles are possible 3-5 PM today in the immediate Philadelphia area, but the main area of rain arrives between 5-7 PM, moving up from south.
Last night’s model runs show a somewhat earlier approach of the rain Sunday afternoon, now expected between 2 and 5 PM, earlier far southwest of Philadelphia.
Indeed, current observations (Real Time Analysis) in West Virginia and Virginia show a larger swarth of rain now than had predicted by most of the models. The model blend has moved the precipitation earlier.
Sunday starts out sunny.
A warm front moves through between 11 am and 2 pm on Sunday. We’ll see a shift of winds and some cloudiness during that time period.
The models are suggesting another period of sunshine during the mid afternoon before clouds move in late afternoon and evening. High 70-72°.
A very significant rain and windstorm is still forecast for Monday. The models were showing gusts of 60 mph, with 70 + mph at the shore. Stay tuned.
Yesterday’s cloud base did lift and thin, but we never saw the degree of clearing that was forecast by the HRRR or NAM-NEST models. Showers moved in, as expected, about 5 PM, but the northern-most extent and their duration into the evening hours was greater than predicted by any model.
For today, (similar to last Sunday), several upper air disturbances are causing the cloud deck right now. Sun should break out later this morning, but another upper air disturbance is expected about 4 PM (not talking about the Eagles here.) So, another period of cloudiness possible later.
The coastal storm for mid-week mentioned in last Friday’s post remains difficult to forecast. The NAM and Canadian GDPS have 1-2 inches of snow (less in the city) late Tuesday afternoon into evening. The GFS shows less development and a coating at most. The GFS has done the best this season with these storms. This storm is still beyond the range of the shorter range models. Stay tuned.