Category Archives: Updates


Sun 07:55 PM Forecast Review — The HIRESW-ARW did the best with this forecast.


Considerable spread continues in the model forecasts today with the amount of rain/showers Sunday afternoon.

Many of the higher resolution models have only some sprinkles, mostly northwest of our area. The model blend has virtually nothing in the immediate PHL area.

This is reflected in the NBM radar/rain forecast:

 Model Blend  “NBM” 3 PM  -Virtually no rain in PHL  The outer white contour is 0.02″ rain


The GFS has more of a precipitation shield nosing into our immediate area between 12 and 3 PM

GFS Radar/ precip forecast 3 PM

The new HIRESW-ARW just available also has a hard time getting any measurable rain in Philadelphia with the 0.02 contour just northwest.

So a difficult call. I guess we’ll find out!


Sun 05:25 PM Forecast Review — An overly optimistic forecast.  I can’t blame this on the models. I just bet on the wrong horse (HREF).     This is as close as the clearing got to us this afternoon  —
Visible Satellite at 4:45 PM

Areas of Chester and Delaware counties had clearing, but I use Blue Bell as the forecast focal point.  The clearing may make it a bit  further north as low pressure has begun to develop over the Delaware border .  Showers and possible thunderstorms still expected later this evening and tonight. 

Going with the latest HREF (High Resolution Ensemble Forecast) model forecast.

Here are the current conditions:

Current Conditions at noon  (Click on image for a larger view.)

HREF forecast: Showers taper off noon- 2 PM. Clouds thin and break for some sun between 3-5 PM.

HREF forecast showing clouds thinning by 3-4 PM with developing areas of vertical motion to our west with residual activity to our far north.  (Click on image for a larger view.)

More showers and thunderstorms between 9 and 11 PM