The latest models have heavy rain before daybreak Sunday, then moderate rain in the morning.
While skies will remain cloudy, the rain should be over about 1 pm on Sunday and much of the afternoon will be rain free (for a hedge, maybe some sprinkles).
Sunday 1 PM – Rain will be ending shortly. Temperatures never warmed to the near- 60 degrees predicted by the models.
7 pm Saturday-Well, I wrestled with this storm and my usual approach led me to a somewhat poor forecast . Snow has picked up in intensity and temperatures have dropped to 32. Temperatures in the lower levels of the atmosphere prevailed Maybe I’ll get another chance this season?
The forecast from last night and this morning remains on track- “After an initial start as light snow between 4-6 pm, it appears to be a mostly sleet and rain storm in Philadelphia and its immediate suburbs before changing back briefly to snow before ending about 2 AM.”
While the lower levels (below 6000 feet) of the atmosphere are below freezing causing sleet and some snow to mix in, the average temperature of the mid level of the atmosphere (below 18,000 feet) is too warm to support snow formation. Add to that the warm ground conditions from earlier today and little accumulation is expected in PHL and the immediate suburbs.
Below is the current radar at 5:51 PM with the area of mostly rain/sleet south of the red line. (Sorry, difficult to see the county boundaries)
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A quick update- the rain is moving in about 1 PM, a bit earlier than last night’s NAM was showing. Total rainfall by late Sunday night is being forecast at over 2 inches by the NAM and GFS models!