Category Archives: Update

Sunday Update and Comment

As has been the case over the past few weeks, my forecast for sky cover (cloudiness) hasn’t been too spot-on.   Yesterday was a good example, where the GFS had cloudiness for much of the afternoon, but we had beautiful sunshine.   (I use humidity fields at certain levels to predict cloudiness;  something hasn’t been working lately.)

I’ll take another stab at it today.   Low level cloudiness (stratocumulus and nimbostratus) lifts by afternoon, but mid-level cloudiness (altocumulus and altostratus)  will be with us for the rest of the day.  As far as sensible weather, it should just be cloudy.   The GFS also shows an ongoing chance of light drizzle through late afternoon.   High temp about 63.

The warm front moves through this evening, and winds shift to the southwest.

Clouds break around noon

The low level cloudiness breaks at noon, and temperatures still expected to soar to near or above 80 this afternoon.

A front moves through late Sunday night with some showers.  Much cooler weather for the beginning of the week.

Postmortem:  Low level clouds never broke for sunshine; this morning’s NAM (available about 10:30 AM) apparently showed this but not the GFS.  I posted before the NAM was released.   Either way, a poor model forecast. These sort of blown forecasts makes everyone skeptical about weather forecasting.

Sunday 4PM EDT Satellite