The forecast for this weekend continues to evolve and has changed since I posted my “Weekend Outlook” yesterday. A dip in the jet stream, a stalled front to our south and a secondary coastal low will make for a less than stellar weekend.
A front will move through this evening with some showers. Most of the dynamics are moving to our north and the showers are not expected to be very heavy.
After the frontal passage which hangs to our south, skies had been expected to clear. However today’s NAM and GFS have upper air disturbances moving through our area that will cause significant cloudiness for Saturday, mostly in the afternoon. A northerly wind will bring cooler temperatures and the much of the day will be somewhat
windy, breezy with winds diminishing later in the afternoon. High temperatures 66-68.
For Sunday, there is still disagreement between the GFS and NAM regarding the timing and amounts of rain during the daytime hours.
It’s based on the uncertainty regarding low pressure developing along the stalled front to our south and the transfer of energy to a coastal low expected to develop.
The NAM has been consistent forecasting heavy rain for much of Sunday. It is supported by the European model (ECMWF).
The GFS and the new FV3-GFS have the rain moving in before daybreak with a hiatus during the late morning and afternoon hours. So if the GFS and FV3-GFS are correct, Sunday mid-day won’t be a washout. Impossible to say which is correct, but it’s something to hope for. All models have it cloudy with an easterly cold wind and temperatures in the mid 50s!