Today’s forecast went well and there’s little change in the forecast for Sunday.

The models are all on-board for rain on Sunday, with this afternoon’s GFS and NAM having a QPF of 2.5 and 1.5 inches water respectively.

Rain starts well before daybreak and is heavy at times, especially in the morning. The models have rain continuing through the day, tapering and ending as late as 6 or 7 pm.

FV3-GFS 3 hour precipitation forecast 11 am Sunday

Looking back, the FV3-GFS had the most consistently correct forecast for Sunday.


The light showers predicted by the Friday evening model runs are still in the forecast for this morning.

The 2AM EDT (06UTC) model runs (the “off hour” runs) of the NAM and GFS continue to show light showers for mid-morning, but  some suggest the heaviest showers will be to our west and south.

Any showers end by late morning today and from 11 AM on, it should be dry until this evening.  Varying degree of cloud thinning is expected with bright spots, possibly some sun.

Unfortunately, all models have jumped on the scenario of rain, possibly heavy, for Sunday morning.  I’ll have more on this later today.