I was interviewed yesterday by Mónica Zorrilla at BillyPenn.com who had questions about about why Philadelphia Center City often gets lower snowfall totals. She also had some other questions about weather and climate. Read the article here.
Monthly Archives: March 2018
SNOWSTORM POST MORTEM
An interesting snowstorm, with some aspects forecast correctly and others not.
On the plus side—
- Precipitation amounts (QPF) were reasonably accurate and timing was pretty good.
- Snow accumulations are always difficult to predict in March, but there were some official reports of snow totals in the
9-12 inch rangeat the upper end. (Official NWS map shows totals were closer to forecast than I realized.) - Temperatures were accurately predicted at 32-33.
Interestingly, the Kuchera algorithm NAM snow totals and axis from last night was probably the most accurate!
What was off on the forecast—
- The heavy snow axis was closer to I-95, not the far north and west as originally thought. (This was captured by the NAM last night.)
- Total snowfall was less than the 10:1 (16 inches max prediction)
- Winds were much lighter (luckily) than had been expected.
I’m ready for spring!
Quick Snow Update 2PM
Well, the snow happened. Current short range forecasts (HRRR model ) show it ending in the Philadelphia and immediate surrounding areas between 4 and 6 PM. An additional 4 inches of snow is possible in some areas near PHL from 2 PM until ending.
Here’s a doppler radar summary depiction of storm total QPF that has already fallen with this storm. (Water value in inches.) It shows the precipitation maxima locations, which with this storm is not the same as the snowfall total maxima locations– areas with the highest QPF in this storm likely had much of the early precip as rain.
There’s still more snow to go.
[su_note note_color=”#ebf2d9″]One thing that the forecasts got wrong (luckily) was the winds and wind gust forecast. The winds have been extremely light, avoiding the power line issues. Hopefully it stays that way. Current GFS LAMPS forecast has only light winds with no gusts tonight. That said, wind forecasts are often the least accurate part of a forecast. [/su_note]