Latest NAM data coming in. No change from previous forecast .
Regarding the light snow for PHL, today’s model runs have increased the QPF to about 0.15 inches of water for PHL and immediate adjacent areas. This is a small fraction of the QPF compared to last week’s storms.
When you’re dealing with such low QPF values, it’s hard to tell how much is model ‘noise’. (If you’re someone who wants more snow (?), the fact that it’s happening at night is in your favor.)
Whatever falls will result in slippery conditions Tuesday morning for the early commute.
Last nights models have QPF values around 0.06 inches water for the nor’easter that will essentially miss us. This translates into minimal snow.
This amounts to snow showers or snow flurries, mostly this evening. Some icy patches possible early Tuesday during the early morning commute. That’s about it.
Looking back at the forecasts over the past few days, the GFS briefly had more of a snowfall for us, later joined by the NAM; but the other models more consistently kept the storm offshore.