I took a quick look at the thermal profiles from this morning’s model run… A bit warm in the atmosphere around daybreak, (rain mixes in) before the storm begins to deepen. This will reduce accumulations in Philadelphia area by several inches. 8 inches looking like a good guess, still the higher amounts, 12+ north and west of the city.
We’ll need to wait until this evening for the real final totals- about 9:45 PM
At work…not much time, but a quick update for the snowstorm in Philly tomorrow. The latest NAM has become available. QPF values, somewhat less, still more than 1.09 inches water in PHL. Band of heavier snow north and west from Valley Forge and Northern Montgomery county and north.
Temperatures at critical levels may allow some mixed precip in PHL during the morning, but a changeover back to all snow in the afternoon. Timing still on track as earlier posts have mentioned. Still going with 12 inches in PHL, less along the adjacent counties SE of PHL, 18 + in western and northern suburbs. (As was the case with the last storm, this is accumulation POTENTIAL. March snowstorms have their own thermal issues from solar insolation effects, reducing totals.)
A busy day at work for me….won’t have time for elaborate posts or evalution of other models until this evening. The all important data becomes available about 9:15 PM and the 3D temperature profiles about 9:45 PM.