Monthly Archives: May 2023

Philadelphia Area Weather Forecasts

WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST

#weather #paweather #wx #pawx #philadelphia #phillywx

Update Fri 5/19 4:05 PM — This afternoon’s models suggest a heavier band of rain may develop directly over Philadelphia. That would be a significant change in the forecast of the past several days.

Previously Posted Fri 9:45 AM —


A coastal system will brush the Philadelphia area with light showers as it moves northeastward early Saturday morning.

A cold front approaches from the west during the day Saturday and moves through early Saturday evening with showers and possibly a few thundershowers. Most of the energy and rain will move up to our west missing us.

The models are in general agreement that the immediate PHL area and some areas to our immediate west likely will miss out in some much-needed rain—

HREF model forecast for total precipitation for Saturday. (Click on image for a larger view.)

Following the cold front, we’ll re-emerge into the same general pattern of a cooler and dry weather pattern—

NAEFS forecast for Monday shows pretty much the same pattern we’ve been in: a cool trough pattern over the northeastern US and a warm ridge over the west.

Saturday

Clouds and showers in the morning, mainly from the city and east into NJ. Becoming sunny thought high cirrus clouds for much of the day. Clouds roll in later afternoon with some light showers in the evening. Many places from the city and immediately westward may not see any showers.

High temperature74.4º sd 2.9º ( NBM model location Blue Bell, PA)

Sunday

Sunny. Breezy

High temperature 77.7º sd 2.0º ( NBM model location Blue Bell, PA

Philadelphia Weather Outlook

THIS WEEK’S WEATHER

#weather #paweather #wx #pawx #philadelphia #phillywx

Update Wed 05/17 @ 9:39 PM — The dry weather and somewhat cooler than average temperatures will continue through Friday.

Some showers are looking increasingly likely for Saturday, especially Saturday afternoon. There’s a wide range of forecasts regarding precipitation amounts.

It doesn’t look like we’ll get much rain and the spread in the models varies from 0.2″ to as much as 0.8″. I think we’ll see the lower end.

The current NAEFS, which is a blend of the GFS and Canadian Global, captures the scenario, with the heavier rain shearing off to our north and west and another area of heavier rain well to our east—

Today’s 18z NAEFS forecast for Saturday late afternoon. The heavier rain looks like it will miss us. (Click on image for a larger view.)

Update Tue 05/16 @ 8:16 PM — The dry weather continues…until Saturday. It doesn’t appear that we’ll get much rain on Saturday, possibly a few tens of an inch. Then more dry weather. Delightful, but the trees, flowers and grass are probably getting thirsty by now.

Update Mon 5/15 10:59 PM — Tuesday looks warm with high temperatures approaching 80°. Sunshine through high cirrus clouds. It looks like the showers Tuesday night will pass us by, even further to our south. Our dry weather continues.

Previously Posted Sun 9:14 PM —

An uneventful weather week is in store for us. Nice weather is expected Monday and most of Tuesday before a cold front moves through Tuesday evening.

This afternoon’s 18z NAEFS forecast for Wednesday. The red line (540 thickness line) captures the general position of the air masses. with a cold dip in the jet stream to affect our weather Wednesday through Friday.

It’s been about two weeks since we’ve had any substantial rainfall, especially from the city northward.

We’re in a very dry weather pattern right now, with any precipitation moving just to our south. This was the case this past Saturday and it will likely be the case this coming Tuesday evening. It was also the case last summer when the word ‘drought’ came back into the local lexicon. Hopefully, this dry pattern will be a temporary situation.

For late Tuesday, the Philadelphia area will again be the dividing line between some rain (0.15+”) to the south and almost zero rain in the northern suburbs. Heavier rain is forecast for southern parts of South Jersey and Delaware.