WEEKEND WEATHER FORECAST

Update Sun 8:51 AM— The clouds from that predicted upper air disturbance have started moving in. The cloudiness mid-day may be considerable and last into mid to late afternoon today.


Saturday Forecast Review —
HRRR 8 AM (12z) Saturday forecast for 11 AM Saturday -Hail parameter showing 0.9 inches (red/orange)  (Click on image for a larger view.)

Stan in Collegeville had commented that he had some brief hail late Saturday morning.  I was curious if the models had predicted this. Indeed, yes.  Here’s the  HRRR model “hail parameter” from Saturday’s 8 AM model run (12z). 

FYI, NOAA’s Severe Storm Site defines hail as being greater than 0.2″ in diameter.  Otherwise it’s still ‘sleet’ or ‘ice pellets’, even if it’s created from low level convective or thunderstorm activity.   

 

Update Fri 10:49 PM— Based on tonight’s early models, HRRR, NAM-NEST, I’ve updated Saturday’s forecast below. It’s more optimistic about some sunny breaks. Sunday’s forecast unchanged.


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Previously Posted Fri 4:56 PM —

Sunday

Mostly sunny, some periods of instability cloudiness late morning into early afternoon. WINDY and chilly. High 45.5º ± 2.6º NBM model Blue Bell)

Winds

NBM wind forecast (Click on image for a larger view.)