Sun 09:46 PM Forecast Review —We had the showers and we saw some sun before clouds rolled in later. The afternoon’s second batch of showers moved mostly south of Philadelphia.
Update Sun @ 11:52 AM — This morning’s models continue the second batch of showers coming in between 4 and 6 PM. There may still be some breaks in the clouds with brief sun in some areas this afternoon. So, aside from the mild temperatures and the wind, today won’t have the perfectly sunny afternoon previously predicted.
This morning’s 12zHIRESW-ARW simulated radar and superimposed accumulated rain (green contours) forecast for 5 PM Sunday. Dark is cloud cover > 90% (Click on image for a larger view.)
Monday is continuing to look very warm! Here’s the Canadian RGEM which tends to do well with temperatures lately—
Sunday 12z CMC RGEM temperatures for Monday at 2 PM Orange contours are 1 degree increments (Click on image for a larger view.)
Updated Sunday forecast on Sun @ 8:48 AM — Last night’s models suggest a change in Sunday’s forecast— the morning showers may linger into the early afternoon and a second batch of showers may move in later in the afternoon. Showers may be with us until 3-5 PM. There still may be breaks of sun in the afternoon but a sharp transition to beautiful, warm day may not be in the cards for today.
Updated Sunday forecast on Sat @ 5:40 PM — It now appears that the showers will move out between 1 and 2 PM Sunday with sunshine in the afternoon. Warm and very WINDY
Saturday
A warm front will move through on Saturday with some cloudiness and a chance of light showers in the afternoon, as the upper air flow becomes southwesterly and an upper air ridge moves over the northeastern US.
Varying amounts of cloudiness and some bright spots/sun expected with more cloudiness in the morning. Clouds may break after 3-4 PM
No showers expected in the immediate PHL area. (possible, north of Doylestown.)
The latest Canadian RGEM and the NAM-NEST are more optimistic about bright skies and even periods of some sun mid-day on Saturday.
High 51.1º sd 1.1º NBM model, Blue Bell. High temperatures have been trending towards the upper end of the statistical spread (52º)
Previously Posted Fri 10:27 AM —
Sunday
A low pressure system moving through Canada will drag a weak surface front through on Sunday with showers.
Saturday morning’s 12z NAM-NEST showing 1 hour accumulated precipitation at 1 PM. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Cloudy in the morning with showers, ending about 2 PM. Heaviest rain northwest of the city.
Breaks of sunshine during the afternoon.
VERY WINDY — sustained winds 19 mph with gusts near 35 mph.
Unseasonably warm. High 70.3º sd 3.1º NBM Blue Bell. (Very large spread/uncertainty. Temperatures have been trending towards the upper end of the statistical spread (73-74º)
Monday Outlook
Forecast high temperatures for Monday according to the Canadian RGEM —
Saturday’s 12z Canadian RGEM model temp forecast with 2º increments at 3 PM Monday. The Canadian GEM does well with temperatures. (Click on image for a larger view.)
A warm front will move through on Saturday with some cloudiness and a chance of light showers in the afternoon, as the upper air flow becomes southwesterly and an upper air ridge moves over the northeastern US.
Varying amounts of cloudiness and some bright spots/sun expected with more cloudiness in the morning. Clouds may break after 3-4 PM
There’s a slight chance of very light scattered showers between 2 and 4 PM innorthern suburbs, according to the latest ECMWF. Most models show no precip in our area.
Update: The latest ECMWF model still has some light showers in the Philadelphia area 2-4 PM. Other models do not.
The latest Canadian RGEM and the NAM-NEST are more optimistic about bright skies and even periods of some sun mid-day on Saturday.
High 52.6º sd 1.8º NBM model, Blue Bell. Temperatures have been trending towards the upper end of the spread (54-55º)
Sunday
A low pressure system moving through Canada will drag a weak surface front through on Sunday with showers.
ECMWF forecast for 1 PM Sunday. Rain displayed is 3 hour prior accumulation. (Click on image for a larger view.)
Cloudy in the morning with showers, ending about 1 PM
Update: The ECMWF has showers lasting into early afternoon.
Heaviest showers north of the immediate PHL area.
Some breaks of sunshine during the afternoon.
VERY WINDY with gusts near 35 mph.
Unseasonably warm. High 70.7º sd 3.9º NBM Blue Bell. (Very large spread/uncertainty. Temperatures have been trending towards the upper end of the spread (~74º)
