Monthly Archives: December 2020

Winter Weather

INTERESTING WEATHER FOR MONDAY

From earlier today…

On Sunday evening into Monday, most models have low pressure developing in the southeastern US and moving up, just missing the Philadelphia area.

Interestingly, the new soon-to-be-released GFS model version 16, (still in test mode, expected to become operational In January-February 2021) has been consistently showing a different track than other models, a track that would brush our area with light snow early Monday morning.  Most areas will NOT receive any accumulation (too warm at the surface), or a coating at most, shown in the second graphic.

GFS “Pre PARA” Model 10AM precip/cloud forecast Monday (Click on image for a larger view.)
GFS Pre-PARA model shows very light snow accumulation  (Click on image for a larger view.)

This model currently is an outlier. Most other models have to moving off to our south, missing us.

The latest NAM model suggests it might have moved into the new GFS model camp.

It’s interesting that the major US model scheduled to replace the existing GFS in a month or so consistently has had such a different forecast. Stay tuned. I’ll keep an eye on it.

(BTW, the long range model forecast suggests another ‘interesting’ weather event next Wednesday or Thursday.)

Updates

FORGET ABOUT THOSE SNOWFLAKES?

From earlier Wednesday—

Today’s forecast of snow flurries was always on the edge of not meriting a blog post. But I wanted to keep my skills honed, so it’s been the subject of my recent two posts.

I’m ready to bring this to a close.   Today’s models continue with the trend of the clipper system coming through, although none of the models just available  show this current radar situation at 9 AM (which could be showing precip evaporating before reaching the ground).

Current 9AM Radar Loop (courtesy of weathertap.com)   (Click on image for a larger view.)

 

HRRR Precipitation Type forecast showing light rain sprinkles north of Philadelphia  (Click on image for a larger view.)

Indeed, this morning’s models don’t show any precipitation reaching us until 12-2 PM, and being extremely light, mostly north of us, with the lowest layer of the atmosphere too warm for even snow flurries. 

So, there’s a disconnect right now with current conditions and model forecasts. The non-event of possible light snow flurries could just become light rain sprinkles or just be a total non-event.  Let’s see what happens.