Fri 11:00 PM Update — Tonight’s models suggest the rain will be more showery in nature on Saturday— Breaks in the rain interrupted by some heavy rain periods. Winds look a bit more gusty as well. Some clearing late afternoon will be interrupted by scattered thunderstorms late afternoon and during the evening. Some areas will receive much more rain than others. Not a uniform continuous rain event. The HIRESW shows some of that extreme tropical moisture makes it into Philadephia, so localized heavy rain possible. The forecast below remains mostly intact.
The moisture and energy remnants of Hurricane Laura will move into our area on Saturday. The low pressure system that was Laura will merge with a large non-tropical low pressure system and associated cold front on Saturday into Saturday night.
The moisture maximum, as reflected in the precipitable water parameter, or “PWAT” maximum, will move just to our south, as previously forecast —
The energy associated with both Laura, the non-tropical low, and the cold front will move through in separate batches. Showers and rain will move through during the overnight hours.There may be a break in the action Saturday morning, but rain returns around noon and continues though the mid afternoon. Total rain about 1 inch, locally higher.
The GFS (new pre-release version) has rain ending around 5PM with even some sun possible later Saturday afternoon. The HIRESW has similar forecast, but has additional showers and clouds after 8 PM with the actual cold front passage.
Rain and cloud details above
High Temp 81º sd 2.1º Dew Point 73-74º
Winds SW 5-10 mph Gusty mid afternoon. Becoming NW around 10 PM after the cold front passage
High pressure builds in for Sunday. A few upper air disturbances may produce periods of “fair weather clouds” and instability stratocumulus.
Sunny early, then a mix of sun and clouds in the afternoon.
High temp 78.6º sd 1.3º
Low Humidity. Dew points upper 50s.
Winds WNW 10 mph becoming gusty to 20mph in the afternoon.
1:00 PM Update- Storms approach 3-4 PM according to the latest HRRR
A quick post- models are on-board with thunderstorms today in the immediate PHL area, from 3-6 PM, moving northwest to southeast. Several models show closer to 4 PM. Severe storm parameters are in the moderate range. Some quick heavy rain possible, gusty winds.
Most models have the remnant moisture of Hurricane Laura moving into our area on Saturday. It currently appears that the storm’s energy and moisture will become incorporated into a non-tropical low pressure system moving through to our north. A cold front moves through Saturday evening.
At this stage of things, there’s little agreement where the maximum dynamics, moisture and precipitation will fall.
The GFS model, along with the statistical ensemble version, the GEFS, have the maximum precipitation falling in New England—
The NAM-NEST has a very different scenario, with much higher amounts falling closer to home—
Most models agree that rain starts Saturday morning and becomes heavier during the afternoon. It’s likely that the NAM-NEST is over-forecasting the rain here and we’ll likely get only 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain.
Thu 02:53 PM Update — Thunderstorms look much less likely this afternoon and tonight. It also appears that we won’t hit the highly advertised 94º high temp today.
My previous post postulated that it’s tougher to accurately forecast the weather with a tropical system in the picture. That’s not going to stop me from trying.
Tonight’s models are just becoming available. A warm front moves through overnight and dew points rise almost 10° by 8 AM.
Tonight’s models show some scattered/isolated thunderstorms developing between 5 AM and 7AM Thursday morning with the warm frontal passage. The ‘severe weather parameters’ are fairly elevated at that time, so while these storms will be isolated, they may pack a punch.
Some models are showing more thunderstorm activity late Thursday afternoon and evening.
Unfortunately, I’m unable to access the HIRESW model this evening.